Drug War Issues
Politics & Advocacy
[Update: Two more polls showing Prop 19 trailing came out after this issue of the Chronicle went to bed. Read about them here. Then volunteer (you don't need to be in California, all you need is a phone), because it's complicated and there's only one poll that counts, the one on Election Day.]
Two polls released Tuesday show Proposition 19, the California tax and regulate marijuana legalization initiative, in trouble. This follows mostly (but not entirely) bad polling news late last week, including an LA Times poll finding the initiative's worst numbers yet. Whether Tuesday's million dollar gift to the campaign by financier George Soros can make a difference in the final days, or whether a postulated "Reverse Bradley Effect" is causing support for the initiative to be unreported in polls conducted by live interviewers, will be seen next Tuesday.
marijuana plants (wikimedia.org)
A PPP poll in July had Prop 19 winning 52% to 36% and a PPP poll in September had it leading 47% to 38%. Tuesday's poll continues the downward trend line.
A new Suffolk University poll also has Prop 19 losing, 55% to 40%. That poll showed majority support for the measure only among voters under 35, 58% of whom said they would vote for it. All other age groups opposed it. The poll also showed Prop 19 losing even in the San Francisco Bay area, with support there at only 44%.
The Suffolk University poll was a statewide poll of 600 likely voters conducted by live telephone interviews and has a 4% margin of error. Prop 19 has come out ahead in automated polls, leading some observers to suggest that respondents are less likely to respond honestly about supporting marijuana legalization in polls with live polltakers. The putative phenomenon has been dubbed the "Reverse Bradley Effect," after former LA Mayor Tom Bradley, who lost a statewide election despite leading in the polls. Observers suggested that people were reluctant to tell pollsters they were voting against a black candidate.
The Prop 19 campaign recently released its own internal poll, which showed the measure passing 56% to 41% when people were robo-polled and leading 48% to 45% when automated and live poll data were combined.
Stay tuned. There will be at least two more polls released before election day, one by PPP and one by the Field Poll. But the only poll that counts is the one voters head to last week.
Permission to Reprint: This content is licensed under a modified Creative Commons Attribution license. Content of a purely educational nature in Drug War Chronicle appear courtesy of DRCNet Foundation, unless otherwise noted.
Comments
How timid Americans are.
How timid Americans are. That they're so intimidated by the US Govt they'll tell a live pollster they don't favor legalization. But, every computer generated poll shows responders overwhelmingly supporting cannabis legalization. Thank God we have secret ballots & the US Govt can't tell how you voted behind the curtain. I predict Prop 19 winning by 10 points. But, we'll see if Californians accept Mr Obama's belief that the US Govt can force their will on States, or not. So, what will it be? The Golden Bear roaring? Or, a bunch of chickens clucking over how they had their chance & blew it by just sitting on the couch on election day?
Prop 19
I am discusted that people say they believe in God, say they love their children, but have no regard for freedom to live their lives the way they choose, or has the BALLS to stand up to mainstream society and finally say,
"Enough is enough!" Let every individual live their lives as they need to, so as long as they dont infringe upon the person next to them trying to pursue their life and happiness! If this prohibition continues and if this country remains to be so unfree, Then I will pray to "my God".
GOD Damn! all you people that have bound those like myself to have to live a life that we dont want to live!
God Damn! All the people that started prohibition and killed the early American Indians!
GOD Damn! All the MF's that think that since you dont need an herb, you make decisions that effect everyone else!
GOD Damn!
Live and let live! Or I pray for an end to this discusting ball of crap we call humanity.
People are what is wrong with this world! That is why I will not have kids!
Fix this world so everyone is free to pursue their own path to liberty, or I am going to move to the friggen mountains, eat squirls,drink rattle snake piss, and be a hermet!
F*** Off Everyone!
Jason
yes on prop 19
i think yes on prop 19 because its the best thing for everyone thatt is sick
Suffolk U. poll is garbage
Do they honestly expect to get a pulse on the Prop 19 vote by a telephone interview? This crap poll was done by a university? Many of the people who will respond to such phone interviews will be paranoid of being tricked and having their views exposed and naturally are going to whimp out and reject prop 19. But when they get in the voting booth on Tuesday and know their vote is secret, the outcome will be entirely different. Prop 19 passes 53-47%
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