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Prop 19 Still Trailing in Polls, But with Hopeful Signs

Proposition 19, is trailing in more polls, adding to a run of disappointing poll results as election day draws near. According to the Talking Points Memo Polltracker, five separate polls in the past week have Prop 19 losing by an average of 50.3% to 42.6%. (A Yes on 19 internal poll not included in the Polltracker has the measure ahead 45% to 42%.)

A SurveyUSA poll released last Wednesday had the measure trailing 44% to 46%, well with the poll's 4% margin of error. As SurveyUSA put it, "not yet enough breathing room for 'No' to be considered a clear favorite, but enough of a 'Yes' erosion for backers to be gravely concerned."

A CNN/Time poll released last Tuesday was worse. It had Prop 19 losing 53% to 45%, with a +/-3.5% margin of error, among likely voters. (The numbers were slightly better for registered voters, 51% to 47%). The measure trailed among both men (46%) and women (44%) and whites (42%) and non-whites (49%). Only among liberals (76%), voters under 50 (57%), Democrats (55%), and in the San Francisco Bay area (55%) was Prop 19 polling a majority.

[Update: A final Field poll released Sunday also showed the measure down.]

The CNN/Time poll measured responses from 1,328 registered voters and 888 likely voters. The poll was conducted by phone interview.

The SurveyUSA poll is worrisome because a series of SurveyUSA polls as recent as October 18 had Prop 19 winning, but it does hold some grounds for hope. It measured both likely and actual voters -- early voting has been going on for several weeks now -- and it also polled cell phone users. Among people who only had cell phones, Prop 19 led, 48% to 36%. It also led among people who rarely vote in midterm elections, but who said they'd be voting this time, by a margin of 53% to 39%. And it led among people who had not yet voted, 45% to 42%, while trailing among those had already voted, 43% to 54%.

Those poll findings suggest that the initiative could still emerge victorious if it can get the young and tech-savvy and the "unlikely voters" who may be motivated by the issue to actually get out and vote. Prop 19 and its allies have been whipping their get out the vote campaign hard, and this week's million dollar infusion courtesy of George Soros may still give it the oomph to get over the final hurdle on Tuesday.

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There's only one survey that counts...

There's only one survey that counts, and it's not until Tuesday Nov 2nd.

Ignore the BS.


Save the world.

If it passes.... I still

If it passes.... I still can't have my hemp farm.   A 5 foot by 5 foot area just isn't enough.

If we want it legalized, it needs to be full legalization, not change criminal status of it.

if you happen to have just over the alotted amount, you're still charged the same as of the prop never passed

in my opinion, marijuana should be legalized. The prop just needs a good re-writing.

vote no on this one

The bill is not perfect but

The bill is not perfect but it can be changed alter down the road.. Voting no will just push the legalization of marijuana back further.. THIS IS STEP ONE of many steps to come. Dont vote against your own interest.  be apart of the movement.. We are trying to make history here!

Prop 19 may be far from

Prop 19 may be far from perfect, but it is a major step in the right direction.  It would make some very important incremental changes in the direction of full legalization of cannabis.  It makes absolutely no sense for somebody who supports legalization of cannabis to vote no on Prop 19.  Prop 19 represents an enormous opportunity for Californians to make cannabis legalization a mainstream topic in American politics, and should not be wasted.  Please vote yes on 19.  Incremental change is usually all people are willing to accept.  Expecting a majority of voters to to vote for complete deregulation of cannabis after many decades of prohibition is unreasonable. Your attitude only serves to prolong prohibition.

Dont worry, prop 19 WILL

Dont worry, prop 19 WILL allow cities to allow you to grow your hemp farm, you may have to move to a city that will allow it but that will still be an option for you. Vote Yes on 19!!

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Rewriting? Even if the initiative just said, "hemp production will be legal; no limit in size of hemp farms", it wouldn't be much better than prop 19. It would be the federal government that would not allow you to have your hemp farm, not prop 19. Under prop 19, if counties decide, they can allow hemp farms of limitless size, and probably at least one county would allow it. North Dakota already legalized commercial hemp in 1999, but nothing has happened because of the federal government. The faster you give the finger to the federal government the faster you'll have your hemp farm. 

Rewriting? Even if the

Rewriting? Even if the initiative just said, "hemp production will be legal; no limit in size of hemp farms", it wouldn't be much better than prop 19. It would be the federal government that would not allow you to have your hemp farm, not prop 19. Under prop 19, if counties decide, they can allow hemp farms of limitless size, and probably at least one county would allow it. North Dakota already allows its farmers to grow hemp commercially (since 1999), but nothing has happened because of the federal government. The faster you give the finger to the federal government the faster you'll have your hemp farm. 

One step at a time.  And

One step at a time.  And voting YES will be ... one small step for California, but one giant leap for Human Rights."

Poll No, Vote Yes

When you get polled in California, reply NO.

This is to keep you from getting in trouble with your employer, etc.

When you get into the voting booth, vote YES on Prop 19.

Don't believe it...

Just show up and vote Yes on 19, and the rest will take care of itself.  The opposition has pulled out all the stops in these last few weeks.  I don't believe that 10% changed their mind in one week!


i don't believe them either, but it's a little spooky to come this far and then see polls like that and i LIVE in KY so........i don't know it's kind of hard to see.

prop19 polls

i don't believe them either,but it's kind of hard to come this far and see polls like that and i live in KY.

NO ON 19 !!

If Prop 19 passes it will COST taxpayers to subsidize people to get high...increase in workers comp and insurance as well.  Vote smart CA and don't believe the bogus BS put out by to "Weedies"

Nonsense, nonsense, and

Nonsense, nonsense, and nonsense. 

How's "subsidizing" billions of dollars in incarceration, court costs, and law enforcement hours/manpower working out for you so far?

Your best argument is a

Your best argument is a personal attack?  "Don't listen to the 'weedies'"  LOL  Seriously.

I have weedies every morning

I have weedies every morning for breakfast.

I have Weedies every morning

I have Weedies every morning for breakfast.

Someguy and Vinnie, I hope

Someguy and Vinnie, I hope you change your mind and vote "yes" on Prop19, at least. It is not a perfect law, but it is a good beginning; and, as many have pointed out, "we don't want the perfect to be the enemy of the good". 

As for voting in general, with this election I have stopped voting for candidates to the state legislature and congress, since in my state no third party candidate will ever again get on the general election ballot, thanks to the version of "top two" primary the state adopted after our open primary was declared unconstitutional. I won't vote for any elected position except judges (non-partisan) but I will continue to vote on issues. I am urging my friends and family (and strangers) to do the same, because if enough people do it, a really low number of votes for elected positions in comparison to the total number of ballots voted (and counted) should send a very loud message to the damn politicians that the voters hate the way they've rigged the system, not to mention the way they've legislated.

Proposition 19 Legal at Last

 When Proposition 19 passes we begin the process of nationwide legalization.

I have looked forward to this day for a very long time.

Why don't you worry about a really dangerous drug, Vinnie

Alcohol. If society can live with all the death and devastation caused by alcohol abuse, why can't it live in harmony with all the peaceful responsible cannabis users out there? I don't have the slightest idea what you're talking about with taxpayers subsidizing people to get high- what's that about? The war against cannabis users is already forcing taxpayers to subsidize a judicial/prison industrial complex, deluxe pensions and all. We want to turn cannabis users from being involuntary tax eaters and turn them into taxpayers. If you'd rather fire more teachers and health care workers, and surrender National Parks and Forests over to drug gangs, and keep drug gangs in charge of distribution because you think that protects children, that's your choice.

Get up stand up

I voted yes for Prop 19 almost 2 weeks ago via mail-in. We are almost at the finish line and can't afford to miss this opportunity or it will be another 30 years wait. If the 18+ generation don't make the effort to go to the polls and vote for Prop 19 then it won't happen. Get up stand up don't give up your rights!!

Yes on 19

I live in Texas where they still think MJ is like the old reefer madness movie.  A friend of mine in TX was pulled over on the Hwy with his boss for an expired inspection sticker.  The Police said they smelled Marijuana and asked them to step out of the truck.  There were 2 Joints found in the console, so the trooper pushed my friend down to the ground handcuffed him cursed him out and bruised him up and he was injured.  They were both taken to Jail, and it cost him $750.00 to be released on bail.  Then an additional $1,200.00 in attorney and court fees. He then received 2 years probation where he had to pay $65.00 Monthly and take a pee test each time. 

I have heard of people being beat up by Texas Police like Rodney King for just having a joint.  It is crazy.

It is unbelievable at how horrible this law really is.  Marijuana is safe and I believe that people who use marijuana are non violent peaceful people.

Please vote YES on Prop 19.

Moonrider - I understand your

Moonrider - I understand your discontent and wish third party candidates were more accepted and given the voice and viability they deserve. But your argument against voting for the lesser of two evils among the candidates is just the opposite of your well reasoned argument for Prop 19. Please hold your nose and vote for the closest candidate to your values so that the worse of the two in each race doesn't win. Democracy (as such as it is in CA) is still the art of compromise. And, well, you are also still right. Remember to look at Texas and realize it could be a lot worse if the wrong party gets to Gerrymander CA like they did there. There is still a long way to fall my friend...

Something must be done to get better candidates.

If we don't start doing something about that, now, starting with THIS election, we will never get the kind of candidates we want running for positions of power and we all will continue to live under the threat of government violence being used against us for pursuing our happiness in our own manner.  Government agents MUST be reminded that we each own our own bodies and government has no legitimate Constitutional authority to interfere in our personal lifestyle choices.  We MUST stop tolerating the lesser evil and demand truly GOOD candidates, and we must begin to do it NOW!  If it allows some of the greater evils to get elected, well that will, even more quickly, cause more people to recognize the need to stop these two tyrannous parties' lock on elections in the country.


The writer's of this bill are drug dealers(Oaksterdam Cartel), who have gotten rich from selling pot and now want to corner the market and to keep the prices high. With more government control there will be less of a free market and proceeds from the tax on marijuana are specifically earmarked for enforcing marijuana laws against those that aren't in compliance( anyone not named Richard Lee or Jeff Jones and a few others). This bill, does nothing to keep people out of prison, you will still go to prison for selling a joint, growing even one respectable outdoor plant( c'mon 5'x5' space, each outdoor plant require more space than that), you will go to prison with same punishment for more than an ounce of pot. The only differences is that Agramed, Richard Lee and Jeff Jones with a select other few rich pot dealers can co-opt the law enforcement to put their competition out of business. Their business plan to have huge indoor super grows will put massive amounts of pollution into the air to create electricity to run their lights. Their own estimates show that they plan on selling whole sale for $2800 a pound, more than it cost now.  They have also introduced new marijuana crimes in this bill. It is a travesty and they are promoting as if it will keep people from going to jail, that is just a lie. They are trying to make themselves rich with no regard for the real victims of the drug war nor the huge sect of the population who supplement their income with small pot farms. These Mom and pop ops and all the people they employ will be put out of business with a new cash cow for these corporate pot farmers.


 Let's really legalize it or keep it medical, but not Corporatize pot for a few greedy men and their investors.

borden's picture

don't be a prohibitionist like Johnny Seed

Don't listen to Johnny Seed's propaganda and conspiracy theories. If you vote no on Prop 19, you're a prohibitionist, or maybe you're not but you may as well be. People are going to jail and prison and it has to stop.

PROP 19 doesn't stop people from going to prison, unfortunately

If prop 19 decriminalized any felonies except growing an amount that almost nobody( if anybody in CA) goes to prison for( 5'x5' space), I would vote for it. Instead, it gives lip-service to it and maybe incidentally, some people won't go to jail because a legal defense may be worked out with an expensive lawyer, but mostly it fails in it's supposed aim to legalize pot. It will certainly make a few Business men rich, that is clear, but as for keeping people out of prison, it doesn't affect a brother selling a joint, he will still go to prison. Most marijuana gardens in California are much larger than the permitted size, so they will go to prison and also, the tax money collected is specifically cited to be used for enforcement of marijuana law against those not in compliance with prop 19, PROP is THINLY VEILED PROHIBITION. and I suspect you either you haven't understood the law, haven't read it or have some other vested interest in pretending this law will prevent people from going to jail. it legalizes something that now has a maximum penalty of $100 and is only an infraction ( doesn't even go on your record).

 so please explain if you can why you made the innuendo that prop 19n would keep people out of prison?


JohnnySeed Dips**t

Johnny Seed - If anyone is trying to control a monopoly its you and your mom and pop grow OPs. How many of them have paid taxes for growing their weed and selling it illegally for the last 2 decades? And what now they are voting no or not voting at all even after they have been growing a weed they believe in for the last 20 years? The only thing they believe in now is the corruption of the money that it brings them and you. And now your scared that if it passes, you will have to stop controlling your monopoly and go out and get a real job? Haha Loser!! If the corporate giants grow a bunch of weed, it still won't even supply 7 percent of the consumption of just the state of california, so get over the fact that all of the mom and pops will shut down. the only thing different is that you can smoke recreationally instead of hiding in your closet . Say yes on PROP 19!!!!

Monopolies happen when markets are controlled, you seem ignorant

You have more than one oxymoron in your post. How can a bunch of diverse "mom and Pops" have a monopoly? it makes no sense, but what is happening in Oakland with the authors of prop 19( namely Rich Lee and Jeff Jones) is just that, a monopoly, they  and Agramed have been given the contract to control the four allowed pot farms in oakland(measure z), making thousands of others illegal and out of compliance. Those guys are projecting 58 million dollars of profit in the first year, so your accusations and arguments hold no water and I wouldn't be surprised if your "real job" is writing these responses to confuse the issue for RICH RICHARD LEE. Either that or you are as ignorant as you sound, I hope it is the latter because Richard Lee is already Rich from selling pot and he doesn't deserve more money. Hopefully this power play will be exposed and we will write a real decrimialization bill, not just a corporatization bill.

No on 19. no to corporate pot.

borden's picture

kooky prohibitionist conspiracy theories

Don't listen to Johnny Seed's kooky prohibitionist conspiracy theories. What's happening in Oakland with the grow regulations has nothing to do with Prop 19. Lobby the city council to keep their promise to create a framework for including small and medium growers and to continue holding off on enforcement against them until they do.

In the meanwhile, Johnny Seed can vote however he wants to, but he should stop these disgusting attacks on Richard Lee, who deserves enormous credit for spending the larger portion of his wealth on the cause, rather than just making money off it as many cannabusinesspeople are doing.

I wish I lived in CA I'd vote

I wish I lived in CA I'd vote Yes....twice.

gotta wonder

Hey Phil, It did occur to me that it was a bit odd that those who have made a tidy sum on medicinal cannabis post prop 215 were the ones bankrolling this initiative as it would possibly put them out of business.


Should Prop 19 pass, and yes, I voted for it early, that would send a message and the legislature would be able to fix most defects with the initiative as they did with SB 420 (!) and Prop 215.


More likely, unfortunately, should Prop 19 fail, then that would in effect call the question in the negative and would result in 10 more years of status quo, not bad for the medicinal cannabis growers either.



Possible reasons for decline in polls

Is it possible that polls started going down right after Eric Holder and Obama said they would crack down even harder if prop 19 passes?  Could we assume maybe that scared some people out of telling polls what they were thinking?


No way to tell for sure.  Hope it passes.


Cannabis should have never been illegal in the first place. Its “illegality” is not based on any science, just on lies, distortions of fact, and blatant racism. The truth is that Cannabis is less physically addictive than caffeine, and that it may also serve as a much “safer alternative” to alcohol and/or hard drugs. Another Cannabis product, hemp, was used by humans since time immemorial! It is fully recognized that Cannabis use SUPPRESSES VIOLENT BEHAVIOR, and that Cannabis may be used to help not only treat, but to also prevent some devastating illnesses such as cancer and Alzheimer’s disease.

The fact is that Cannabis has been used by humans for thousands of years exactly because there are so many ways in which this remarkable plant can help us and our planet. So, it is naive to presume that a bunch of fear-mongerers can change this fact, no matter how loud and untruthful they become! I worked in addiction medicine for years, and Cannabis use was the least of my problems, so I do recognize that classifying Cannabis in the same group as heroin and cocaine is one of the greatest scientific fallacies of our times. The so-called “gateway” drug theory was found to be totally invalid, and a very recent large study called this “theory” half-baked. It is simply untrue scientifically.

As Kathleen Parker aptly observed on CNN couple of days ago, “To say that most hard drug addicts start with marijuana is the same as to say that all rapists start with masturbation”. Yeah, that’s about it! Cannabis is not physically addictive, as there is no clearly definable and reproducible physical withdrawal syndrome, observed with alcohol or opiate withdrawal, for example. A recent large study denied any connection between smoking Cannabis and a risk for lung cancer. Quite the opposite, Cannabis use is being found to have some preventative role with such serious conditions as cancer and Alzheimer’s disease, and according to the latest research, Cannabis may even be an “exit substance” for recovering alcoholics/hard drug/prescription drug abusers. Cannabis criminalization leads to horrendous Civil Rights violations around the country. YES to Cannabis re-Legalization! YES on Cali Prop. 19!

corporate weed.

anyone who actually READ the propositions article AND have been in the game a long time know exactly what time of day it is. just read johnny seed's post. he nails it. corporate america at it's finest... keep rallying your sheep boys, i'm sure the bill will pass. bye MOM, bye POP!

"been in the game for a long

"been in the game for a long time?" so you admit you would lose profits if prop 19 passes? 

This could be a pioneer breakthrough

One small step at a time.  Returning to hemp farming belongs to the future but right now passing this proposition could be "... one small step for [California], one giant leap for [Human Rights]."


A young man, dressed in a person-of-authority costume,  came to my condo door because of a complaint from a neighbor.  I knew it wasn't Hallowe'en.

I said:

"I'm 63 years old.  I'm hard of hearing.  I thought I heard the law was changing on October 2nd and that it was happening in British Columbia.  sir."

Then I said:

"No?  You don't buy that?  Well, how about this...  I'm 63 years old.  My hearing is still pretty good.  I know it's really November 2 and it's happening in California.  I was just celebrating a little early.  sir."

Then I said:

"That's not going to cut it either?  How about this, then...  I'm 63 years old.  Do you really want to have to strip search me?  That would be like strip searching your grandmother, wouldn't it?  sir."

Then I said:

" Can I have one more shot at this?  How about... I'm 63 years old.  Do you really think you are doing the right thing?  Wouldn't you rather remember this incident as 'the one you let go'.  Because it was time and you knew she was right?  sir."

Then I said:

"Good night to you, too.  Have a great evening!  Sir."

Fields of dreams.

Oh it doesn't matter. There's so much growing up here in the Sierras it's everywhere up here. From August to now I can smell it driving down the road. One time I kept smelling it driving along highway 20 near Smartsville (yes that's the name of the town). So one day I pulled over and followed my nose for about 500' and found a field of 5000 plants growing right along the highway. Up where I live, you can see whole hillsides of it. It's getting real blatant. Nobody buys pot up here this time of the year. It's becoming part of the environment. Soon everybody is going to have it in their back yard.

If Prop 19 passes, it will be

If Prop 19 passes, it will be one of the biggest corporate/government scams ever pulled off. The slogan should be "Let Corporations and the Government make all the money and give us nothing in return!" YAAYY for "legalizing" cannabis!!!!

What do we get out of this Prop? Well....we can carry an ounce of cannabis. Hmmm, Arnold already made that nothing but an infraction a few weeks ago. What else? Corporations could now grow it. That's it guys. Nothing else. We, in CA, get nothing from this Prop now that Arnold has done what he did. This is a money grab. Dozens of communities will be left to ruin. The Oakland Grow-Ops will soak up all the profit and inject nothing back into the CA economy, unlike now where entire counties are supported by the income of cannabis.

It is a legal nightmare, different grow laws in every county and Feds busting people whenever they want to. The LA cops have already said they are going to ignore the Prop if it passes.

No laws against cannabis will be changed. Feds can and will still raid whenever, you still can't carry more then an ounce, you can't grow anymore then you can with a medical recommendation, you still can't smoke in public anymore then you already can, 7 years jail for smoking with someone under 21, can't drive stoned (not that you should ever be able to), can't work stoned. Nothing. There is nothing here but legalizing corporate grow houses (state legalizing).

If you want Camel Cannabis from Walmart, by all means vote for Prop 19. If you want this to remain as income for the PEOPLE of CA and all over America, support decriminalization (like Arnold ALREADY DID) and medical growing (to stop anyone, corporations or people, from soaking up all the profit). This is the one market that we, as people, still control and corporations are blocked out of, let's keep it that way.

If you care about CA and it's economy, VOTE NO ON PROP 19. It's a terribly written, terribly thought out proposition that the Oakland drug cartel wants to lure us into with the big, bright, shiny promise of legal pot. It's a lie.

"It is a legal nightmare,

"It is a legal nightmare, different grow laws in every county and Feds busting people whenever they want to. The LA cops have already said they are going to ignore the Prop if it passes."

That's how alcohol laws work.


"What do we get out of this Prop? Well....we can carry an ounce of cannabis. Hmmm, Arnold already made that nothing but an infraction a few weeks ago. What else? Corporations could now grow it. That's it guys. Nothing else. "


You're forgetting about the possibility of coffeeshops. Most importantly, you're forgetting that it depends on what counties decide. You're stating that certain regulations would be in place, when no one really knows even whether or not counties would allow corporations to grow it. One possibility that doesn't involve corporations is the dutch system, which is possible would be copied by some counties considering it has been proven to work so well in that country in increasing tourism and collecting sales taxes.


"It is a legal nightmare, different grow laws in every county..."

THAT'S how alcohol laws work. 

"...and Feds busting people whenever they want to..."

Although it bears remembering, alcohol prohibition was repealed, at first, state by state, and feds could have come in at any time.

And it bears remembering, the prohibition on medical marijuana, too, was repealed that way (and the feds still raid dispensaries in spite of what eric holder said). 

In fact, even in spite of arnold's signing of the decrim bill, the feds can still arrest you for possesing shake and imprison you on a first offense. That's how federal law is written. Does that mean that states passing laws shouldn't mean anything?

"What do we get out of this

"What do we get out of this Prop? Well....we can carry an ounce of cannabis. Hmmm, Arnold already made that nothing but an infraction a few weeks ago. What else? Corporations could now grow it. That's it guys. Nothing else. "


Oh, and you're forgetting you can grow 25 sq feet, and store the proceeds for as long and as much as you want. You can have dozens of pounds inside your house legally as long as it was grown by you. That's guaranteed; it's written into the prop; counties don't have to decide on that. 

You're also forgetting that, while you can't go to work stoned, YOU CAN'T BE FIRED FOR SMOKING WEED!!! HOW IS THAT NOT SIGNIFICANT FOR YOU?


"If you want this to remain as income for the PEOPLE of CA and all over America, support decriminalization (like Arnold ALREADY DID) and medical growing (to stop anyone, corporations or people, from soaking up all the profit)."


Decrim? what would you rather have, to pay a 100 dollar fine or not to? 

Corporations employ people too, you know, LEGALLY.


"This is the one market that we, as people, still control and corporations are blocked out of, let's keep it that way."

We the people? You mean "we the illegal growers and dealers."

About medical growing

Medical marijuana is for sick people, and although i'm all for people getting their weed through dispensaries, it doesn't stop the government from considering recreational smokers criminals, or at best, second hand citizens. And on a practical matter, wouldn't you rather not have to lie to your doctor and pay him a hundred dollars for a recommendation? And what about not being fired from your job? This is about people's RIGHT to smoke weed.  That's what the fight had always been about.  

There was a story about a Dry

There was a story about a Dry county in Texas where an effort to legalize alcohol was made by referendum every election. The local churches would have bumper stickers printed out and given away that read "For the Sake of My Family VOTE Dry!". Every election the son of the biggest moonshiner in the county would drive around with TWO of these stickers on his rear bumper.

It will pass

Look into the "Broadus Effect" ~ this will pass. Any poll you see on here is not a reflection of what the state's populous will actually vote. Of course lots of people don't want to publicly admit that they support Prop. 19, but behind the curtain all alone, you know what they're going to vote.

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