Final Field Poll Has Prop 19 Down

Proposition 19, the tax and regulate marijuana legalization initiative is trailing 42% to 49% in the last Field poll of the campaign season. A Field poll last month had the initiative winning by the same margin.

The Field poll results are in line with other recent polls. The Talking Points Memo Poll Tracker, which does not include the latest Field poll, has Prop 19 losing 49.6% to 43.4%. Only two polls out of 10 in the past month show the measure winning.

It appears support for Prop 19 peaked in September, before any serious opposition emerged. The measure polled ahead in all five polls that month.

But the election isn't over until everyone votes on Tuesday, and the Yes on 19 campaign is in full-blown get out the vote mode until the polls close. Rallies, newspaper and electronic media ads, and phone banking will continue up until the last minute.

Still, the Field poll suggests a victory on Tuesday may be hard to come by. Only slim majorities of Democrats (51%) and independents (57%) favor the initiative, while nearly two-thirds (65%) of Republicans oppose it. Prop 19 is only polling at 49% in the San Francisco Bay area and 50% in the rest of northern California, and is trailing in Los Angeles County (38%), the Central Valley (39%), and the rest of southern California (41%).

The measure was trailing among men, 44% to 48%, and by a larger margin among women, 40% to 50%. It trailed in all age groups except voters under age 40, who favored by a margin of 54% to 38%.

Prop 19 didn't have majority support among any ethnic group in the latest Field poll. It fared best with whites (46%), followed by blacks (45%) and Hispanics (35%). But it got creamed by Asian ethnic voters. Only 22% of Chinese-Americans supported, only 19% of Korean-Americans supported it, and only 10% of Vietnamese-Americans supported it.

Can a surge of "unlikely voters" prove the polls wrong? Stay tuned.

CA
United States
Permission to Reprint: This article is licensed under a modified Creative Commons Attribution license.
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Polls, smolls.  If they were

Polls, smolls.  If they were so valid, they wouldn't need to take one nearly everyday.  Just propaganda, and anyone who votes no, is voting against their own self-interests, or the self-interests of other responsible adults who want to not be considered a criminal for smoking an herbal plant.  Screw the price of weed,  it won't move that much in the beginning, its freedom of choice were talking about here.

1937

those who ignore history are condemmed to repeat it. After 70 plus years of corporations criminalizing and demonizing a plant that is grown from seed and has all the characteristics of a weed and competes with synthetics.  A man in a wheel chair with/from proceeds  of millions of dollars made selling weed made artificially more valuable because of the 1937 marijuana tax act, decides to sneak a marijuana initiative into the california vote taxing marijuana thereby making it illegal and disasembling all the medical marijuana systems that have put in place by prop215. How did illegalization of marijuana begin you ask.... read the marijuana tax act of 1937. Legalization is legalization. It is not taxation. The industry for medical marijuana was built seed lines and all by people who risked there lives and property to make this plant available to those in wheelchairs and recreational alike. A persons reason for smoking or cooking with weed is there own constitutional right. Weve all seen the horrors of corporate tobacco and alcohol, the advertising and the pushing of a substance that is both regulated and harmful. The government succeeded in creating organized crime during prohibition of alcohol, now they want to take over the marijuana business that is grass roots and filled with a sinister history. You do the math....

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