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Chronicle AM: CA MJ Init Has Big Bucks, Second AR MedMJ Init Will Be on Ballot, More... (8/26/16)

It's another all-marijuana news day today. Initiative battles are heating up, New York's Health Department wants to expand the medical marijuana program, and more.

Marijuana Policy

California's Prop 64 Campaign Has Raised More Than $11 Million. The campaign to legalize marijuana in California it out-fundraising the opposition by a margin of 61 to 1, according to new campaign finance reports. The Prop 64 campaign has raised $11.45 million, while the No on 64 opposition campaign has raised only $185,000. Prop 64 has received more than $2.3 million from tech billionaire Sean Parker, $750,000 from Weedmaps founder Justin Hartfield, $1.5 million from the New Approach PAC, and $1.25 million from Drug Policy Action, among others. Opposition funding is coming from Smart Approach to Marijuana, the California Teamsters, and law enforcement.

Nevada Law Enforcement Comes Out Against Question 2. At a Carson City press conference Thursday, state Attorney General Adam Laxalt and other law enforcement officials came out in opposition to the Question 2 marijuana legalization initiative. The claimed "this ballot initiative was written by major marijuana interests, who's bigger concern is making money," not the greater good of Nevadans, and cited concerns about impaired driving.

Tennessee Governor Opposes Decrim in Memphis and Nashville. The state's two largest cities are both considering decriminalizing small-time marijuana possession, but Republican Gov. Bill Haslam wants none of it. "I'm not a fan," he says. "While I do think we've had some people who have spent more time in jail than they need to for that. I'm not in favor of decriminalizing that."

Medical Marijuana

Second Arkansas Initiative Will Be on Ballot, Even If It Doesn't Qualify. The state already has one medical marijuana initiative on the ballot, the 2016 Arkansas Medical Cannabis Act, and state officials announced Thursday that a second initiative, the Arkansas Medical Marijuana Amendment, will also appear on the ballot, even though they have yet to certify that it has enough signatures to do so. That's because Thursday was the deadline to certify ballot issues. Because the secretary of state's office was not able to verify late signatures before the deadline, the second initiative has been "certified to the ballot and assigned a number." If the initiative actually comes up short on signatures, votes for it in November will not be recorded.

Florida Medical Marijuana Initiative Polling Above 67%. The Amendment 2 medical marijuana amendment initiative appears headed for victory in November. A new poll from the University of Florida Bob Graham Center has support at 67.8%, in line with a slew of polls since early 2015 that show the initiative will a low of 61% approval and up to 80%. Because the initiative is a constitutional amendment, it needs 60% to pass.

New York Health Department Calls for Expanding Medical Marijuana Program. In a report marking the two-year anniversary of the state's medical marijuana program, the Department of Health called for expanding the program to meet patient needs. "To meet additional patient demand and increase access to medical marijuana throughout New York State, NYSDOH recommends registering five additional organizations over the next two years, using a phased-in approach to permit their smooth integration into the industry," the report said.

Chronicle AM: CA Forfeiture Reform Passes State House, MT Anti-MJ Init Folds, More... (8/25/16)

Lots of California news today, plus a Montana anti-marijuana initiative folds.

A bill to rein in asset forfeiture abuses has passed the California legislature and now awaits Gov. Brown's signature.
Marijuana Policy

California Legislature Passes Cottage Cannabis Production Bill. The measure, Assembly Bill 2516, would establish a new medical marijuana cultivator license category for what sponsor Assemblyman Jim Woods (D-North Coast) calls "microfarmers." The category would apply to farmers with 2,500 square feet or less for mixed-light cultivation, 500 square feet for indoor cultivation, or up to 25 mature marijuana plants for outdoor cultivation. The bill now goes to the desk of Gov. Jerry Brown (D).

California's Legal Marijuana Industry Could Generate $6.5 Billion a Year, Report Says. A new report from Arcview Market Research estimates that legalizing marijuana in the state would create a $6.5 billion annual market by 2020. That would make California the "epicenter" of legal marijuana in the US.

Medical Marijuana

Montana Anti-Marijuana Zealot Gives Up on Initiative to Repeal Medical Marijuana Law. Billings auto dealer Steve Zabawa has given up the ghost on his effort to get an anti-marijuana initiative on the state ballot. His measure would have repealed the state's already seriously gutted medical marijuana law (a measure that has made the ballot, I-182, seeks to reinstate the original law) and declare that any drug illegal under federal law is illegal under state law. He came up short on signatures, lost an initial court challenge, and now says he doesn't have time to appeal to the state Supreme Court. Zabawa said he will now concentrate on trying to defeat I-182.

Asset Forfeiture

California Legislature Approves Asset Forfeiture Reform Bill. A bill that would require a criminal conviction before seizing assets in cases involving less than $40,000 has passed the legislature and is now on the desk of Gov. Jerry Brown (D). The measure, Senate Bill 443, sponsored by Sen. Holly Mitchell (D-Los Angeles), would also prohibit police from partnering with federal agencies in drug busts in order to get around state asset forfeiture laws.

Chronicle AM: At Least Four States Voting on MedMJ, Filipino Prez Could Face ICC, More... (8/25/16)

Michigan legalizers lose a court battle, Oklahoma medical marijuana advocates look to be heading for the ballot box, the 10th Circuit rules that having license plates from marijuana states is not sufficient reason for a stop and search, and more.

Medical marijuana will be on the ballot in at least four states. (Creative Commons/Wikimedia)
Marijuana Policy

Michigan Legalizers Lose Court Bid to Get on Ballot. The backers of the MI Legalize legalization initiative have struck out in court in their bid to get their measure on this year's ballot. The group had collected some 354,000 signatures, well above the 220,00 required, but more than 200,000 of the signatures were gathered outside a 180-day window that the State Board of Canvassers was the only time signatures could be considered. The campaign argued that the 180-day rule was unconstitutional and unfair, but the state Court of Claims ruled Wednesday that the Board of Canvassers was correct. The campaign says it will appeal to the state Supreme Court, but the election clock is ticking and time is running out.

Medical Marijuana

These Four States Will Definitely Be Voting on Medical Marijuana in November. Get a look at the details of and prospects for medical marijuana initiatives that have officially qualified for the November ballot in Arkansas, Florida, Montana, and North Dakota. There is also an Oklahoma initiative that may still qualify (see below), a second Arkansas initiative that may qualify, and a Montana anti-marijuana initiative that is appealing come up short on signatures.

Arkansas Prohibitionists Go to Court to Block Medical Marijuana Initiative. A group calling itself Arkansans Against Legalized Marijuana Wednesday asked the state Supreme Court to block the Arkansas Medical Cannabis Act from appearing on the November ballot. The measure has already qualified, but the group's lawsuit claims the wording of the proposal is misleading and omits key information.

Oklahoma Medical Marijuana Initiative Has Enough Signatures, But Is Not on the Ballot Yet. Secretary of State Chris Benge announced Tuesday that a medical marijuana initiative, State Question 788, has handed in 67,761 valid voter signatures. It only needs 65,987 to qualify for the November ballot, but there are still a couple more hurdles to overcome. The secretary of state's office must send a report on its findings to the state Supreme Court, which will then determine if the number of signatures is enough to put the initiative on the ballot.


Report Finds Women Increasingly Jailed for Drug Offenses. A new report from the Vera Institute for Justice finds that the arrest rate for drug possession for women tripled between 1980 and 2009 and that 29% of women in jails were there for drug offenses. Two-thirds of those women are black or Hispanic, and nearly 80% are mothers, largely single mothers. The report called for localities to adopt cite and release policies and/or decriminalizing drug possession.

Search and Seizure

Marijuana State License Plate is No Reason for Police Stops and Searches, Fed Court Rules. In a case involving a Colorado man pulled over in Kansas, the 10th US Circuit Court of Appeals has ruled that police violated his constitutional rights by stopping and searching him based primarily on the fact that he came from a state that was a "known drug source." Cops can't do that, the court ruled bluntly. To allow such a practice would justify searching drivers from the 25 states that allow medical or fully legal marijuana. "It is time to abandon the pretense that state citizenship is a permissible basis upon which to justify the detention and search of out-of-state motorists, and time to stop the practice of detention of motorists for nothing more than an out-of-state license plate," Circuit Judge Carlos Lucero wrote in the opinion. "Absent a demonstrated extraordinary circumstance, the continued use of state residency as a justification for the fact of or continuation of a stop is impermissible," he added.


Philippines President Could Face International Tribunal Over Drug War Killings, Senator Says. President Rodrigo Duterte could be charged with crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court (ICC) over the wave of killings of alleged drug users and sellers since he took office two months ago, according to Sen. Leila de Lima. "There are some experts who are saying that… if this spate of killings go unabated and unchecked, it could reach that point that the ICC could send a prosecutor to our country and investigate all these for possible prosecution under the Rome Statute," she was quoted saying. "This is not a joke. The last thing we need right now is for our dear president to be subjected to an investigation by an international tribunal like the International Criminal Court. I am not threatening the president. I am just stating a fact," she added.

Chronicle AM: Seattle Safe Injection Site Progress, Philippines Drug Killings Inquiry, More... (8/23/16)

A Seattle heroin task force has endorsed safe injection sites, the Philippine Senate is holding hearings on the ongoing massacre of alleged drug users and sellers, Colombia coca growers are protesting over unfulfilled crop substitution promises, and more.

Vancouver's InSite drug consumption room. Something similar could be coming to Seattle. (
Marijuana Policy

Arkansas Attorney General Rejects 2018 Legalization Initiative Wording, Again. Attorney General Leslie Rutledge has again rejected the wording of a proposed constitutional amendment to legalize marijuana. The proposal is from Mary Berry of Summit. Rutledge wrote Monday that the proposal has ambiguities around licensing and the role of various state agencies in overseeing legal marijuana commerce. Berry successfully submitted a similar proposal for this year, the Arkansas Cannabis Amendment, but it failed to get enough signatures to qualify for the ballot.

Northern Marianas Senator Reintroduces Marijuana Legalization Referendum Bill. Sen. Sixto Igisomar has redrafted what was formerly a medical marijuana bill and turned it into a full-on legalization bill. The new version, Senate Bill 19-106, is now before the Senate Committee on Health and Welfare. If approved by the legislature, the measure would then go before the voters.

Harm Reduction

Seattle Heroin Task Force Endorses Safe Injection Sites. The Heroin Task Force empanelled by Seattle Mayor Ed Murray and King County Executive Dow Constantine has endorsed open safe injection sites for drug users. The task force is now working on formal recommendations on how it might work and the legal challenges it could face. Those recommendations are expected next month.


Philippine Senators Open Hearing on Drug War Killings. The Senate Justice Committee opened an inquiry Monday into the killings of more than 1,800 alleged drug users and sellers during an ongoing crackdown spurred by President Rodrigo Duterte. Committee chair Sen. Leila de Lima said she was worried by the killings and that police and vigilantes could be using the crackdown "to commit murder with impunity." National Police Chief Ronald de la Rosa, who said he did not condone extrajudicial killings, took heat for failing to stop vigilante killings. "This is like anarchy," said Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV. "It's continuing under your watch."

Colombia Coca Growers Say Government Not Living Up to Crop Substitution Promises. Coca growers in Putumayo province have been protesting for the past month, saying the government is eradicating coca crops without providing substitute crops as promised. Clashes between riot police and protestors have left at least one farmer dead, with dozens others injured.

Chronicle AM: Second AR MedMJ Init Should Qualify, Philippine Death Toll Doubles, More... (8/22/16)

Marijuana reform foes in Arizona and Missouri go to court to try to block initiatives, a second Arkansas medical marijuana initiative is poised to qualify for the ballot, Duterte's festival of death continues apace, and more.

Arkansans could have two chances to vote for medical marijuana in November. (Creative Commons/Wikimedia)
Marijuana Policy

Arizona Legalization Foes Appeal to State Supreme Court to Block Initiative. Even though a state superior court judge last week ruled that their challenge to the Prop 205 legalization initiative made no legitimate claims, the plaintiffs in the lawsuit have vowed to take their case to the state Supreme Court.

Medical Marijuana

Second Arkansas Initiative Should Qualify for Ballot. There's already one medical marijuana initiative on the ballot, the Arkansas Medical Cannabis Act, but there could be another. Backers of the Arkansas Medical Marijuana Amendment handed in additional signatures last Friday after they came up short in the original round of petitioning. The amendment needed 84,589 valid voter signatures, but only came up with 72,000 valid ones on July 8. Being so close, however, qualified the amendment for a second round of signature gathering, and it has now handed in another 35,000 raw signatures, meaning it should now qualify. If both initiatives appear on the ballot and both pass, the one with the most votes will become law.

Missouri DAs Seek to Block Medical Marijuana Initiative Campaigns Challenge on Invalidated Signatures. A dozen state prosecutors have filed legal action to block the New Approach Missouri medical marijuana initiative from getting on the ballot. The group is challenging official signature counts that say it came up short, but the DAs argue that that isn't the real issue. They argue that the state cannot put on the ballot issues that would result in laws in conflict with US law.


Duterte's Philippines Drug War Death Toll Doubles to 1800. The number of people killed in President Rodrigo Duterte's campaign against drug users and sellers has now reached 1,800, police said Monday. Police said they had killed more than 700 drug offenders, while more than 1,000 killings were carried out "outside police work." The UN has called on Manila to end the extra-judicial killings, but Duterte has responded by saying he could quit the UN.

Mexico Police Accused of Massacring 22 Suspected Cartel Members. The deaths of 22 alleged cartel members in a May 2015 incident at a ranch in Michoacan was not a gun battle, but a mass execution, the country's human rights commission declared last Friday. The commission said police killed the men, then moved bodies and planted guns to support the official account that there had been a shoot-out. "The investigation confirmed facts that show grave human rights violations attributable to public servants of the federal police," said the commission president, Luis Raul Gonzalez Perez. National Security Commissioner Renato Sales, who oversees the federal police, rejected that charge, and did so at a press conference called before the commission had finished its own.

Chronicle AM: NV Initiative Has Slight Poll Lead, PA MedMJ Draft Regs Released, More... (8/19/16)

An effort to knock the Arizona legalization initiative off the ballot gets slapped down, a new Nevada poll shows a very tight contest for the legalization initiative there, a new study finds that marijuana use is not implicated in organ transplant problems, and more.

coming soon to Pennsylvania (
Marijuana Policy

Arizona Judge Rejects Lawsuit Trying to Knock Legalization Initiative Off the Ballot. Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Jo Lynn Gentry has dismissed a lawsuit brought by opponents of the Prop 205 legalization initiative. The lawsuit had challenged the 100-word initiative summary that will appear on ballots, but Gentry ruled that the summary "substantially complies with the law." The foes, led by Arizonans for Responsible Drug Policy, said they will appeal.

Nevada Poll Has Legalization Initiative Under 50%, But Still Leading. A new Nevada poll from Suffolk University shows a tight race ahead. The poll had support for the Question 2 legalization initiative at 48%, with 43% opposed, and 9% undecided.

Medical Marijuana

Study Finds Marijuana Use Not Associated With Bad Organ Transplant Outcomes. A peer-reviewed study from the journal Clinical Transplantation finds that marijuana use is not contraindicated in kidney transplants. "[R]ecreational marijuana use should not be considered a contraindication to kidney transplantation," the authors concluded. "[R]ecreational marijuana use should be systematically evaluated in a larger setting before a decision is made on what, if any, degree of use or abuse should be considered a relative or absolute contraindication, or whether use or abuse should be considered a contraindication." Even in jurisdictions that allow for medical marijuana use, hospitals routinely disqualify patients with a marijuana history from eligibility for organ transplants.

Pennsylvania Medical Marijuana System Moving Forward. The state Health Department has released a draft of the rules for the state's nascent medical marijuana industry. The more than 90 pages of draft regulations create a roadmap for aspiring medical marijuana growers and processors who are competing for 25 lucrative permits.

Chronicle AM: Duterte Lashes Out at UN, CA MJ Arrests Haven't Gone Away, More... (8/18/16)

Despite what's been called "de facto legalization," California has arrested a half million for pot in the last decade; Tennessee's Music City moves toward decriminalization, a Montana anti-medical marijuana initiative has come up short, and more.

Filipino President Rodrigo "The Punisher" Duterte (
Marijuana Policy

California Saw Half a Million Marijuana Arrests in the Last Decade. And you thought pot was virtually legal there already. A new report from the Drug Policy Alliance shows that far from "de facto legalization," tens of thousands of Californians are still getting arrested for marijuana offenses each year. Even though the state decriminalized pot possession in 2011, thousands are still arrested for marijuana misdemeanors each year, and the burden of arrests falls disproportionately on blacks, Latinos, and youth.

Report Finds West Virginia Could Make Millions By Legalizing Marijuana. The West Virginia Center on Budget and Policy released a report Thursday saying that if the state legalized marijuana and taxed it at 25% of its wholesale price, the state could collect an estimated $45 million a year. And if just 10% of marijuana users living within 200 miles of the state came to buy legal weed there, the state could make $194 million a year. It would also save most of the $17 million a year it currently spends enforcing pot prohibition.

Nashville Moves Toward Marijuana Decriminalization. Tennessee's second largest city (less than a thousand people fewer than Memphis) is headed for decrim. The city council Tuesday gave its initial approval to a measure that would make possession of up to an ounce a civil infraction punishable by a $50 fine. It's not a done deal yet, though, and the police are grumbling. Stay tuned.

Medical Marijuana

Possible Arizona Pot Legalization Spurs Rush for Medical Marijuana Licenses. More than 750 people or groups have submitted applications for 31 medical marijuana dispensary licenses to be awarded in October. Medical marijuana license holders will get first crack at new adult use licenses if the Prop 205 legalization initiative passes.

Montana Anti-Medical Marijuana Initiative Fails To Qualify for Ballot, But Challenges Signature Shortfall. An initiative seeking to repeal the state's medical marijuana law has failed to qualify for the November ballot after coming up short on valid signatures. The Safe Montana campaign claims the state improperly rejected or lost signatures and has filed suit to challenge the state's decision. Meanwhile, the I-182 initiative, which would rebuild the state's largely gutted medical marijuana program, has already qualified for the ballot.


Philippines President Duterte Slams "Stupid" UN Criticism of Drug War Killings.President Duterte, who has presided over hundreds of drug war killings since assuming office just weeks ago, has pushed back against criticism of his policies by the United Nations. ""Here comes the UN, easily swayed, and coming with a very stupid proposition,"Duterte said in a speech on Wednesday at an event for police officers also attended by foreign diplomats. "Why would the United Nations be so easily swayed into interfering in the affairs of this republic?" Duterte has ordered police not to hesitate to kill and even urged ordinary citizens and communist rebels to join in the war against drugs. Drug users are "not viable human beings," he said.

Chronicle AM: 64% Support Legalization in CA Poll, NM MedMJ Access Lawsuit, More... (8/17/16)

The marijuana legalization campaigns are starting to heat up, a new California poll has the strongest support yet for pot legalization, and more.

Marijuana Policy

New California Poll Has Support for Legalization at Nearly Two-Thirds. A poll released Wednesday by the Institute of Governmental Studies at UC Berkeley has 63.8% supporting legalizing recreational marijuana use. Somewhat surprisingly, when it comes to ethnicity, support was highest among blacks (71.9%) and Latinos (69.3%). The Prop 64 legalization initiative goes before the voters in November.

Sen. Harry Reid "Dubious" on Nevada Legalization Initiative. Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) is not getting behind the Question 2 legalization initiative. He is "very, very dubious and concerned," he said. "If I had to vote on it now, I wouldn't vote for it," Reid told reporters Tuesday. "That's something we need to look at quite a bit longer. I think it's something that we have to be very careful with. People better start making a case to me. They haven't done it yet."

Barney Frank Supports Massachusetts Legalization Initiative. The former long-time Democratic congressman from Massachusetts is headlining a fundraiser at the Harvard Club for the Question 4 legalization initiative. The fundraiser is August 28. Oregon US Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D) will also be in attendance. Tickets are priced at $250, and the campaign says it needs to raise $3 million in the next 12 weeks.

Medical Marijuana

New Mexico Patient's Mom, Marijuana Producer Sue Over Medical Marijuana Shortage. The mother of an infant suffering from a rare form of epilepsy has joined with a state-legal grower to sue the Department of Health over restrictive rules they say are harming patients by making it impossible for producers to supply patients with the medicine they need.

It's Official: Five States Will Vote on Marijuana Legalization in November [FEATURE]

This article was produced in collaboration with AlterNet and first appeared here.

Arizona Secretary of State Michele Reagan last week certified a marijuana legalization initiative for the November ballot, setting the stage for a national election that will see the issue go directly to the voters in five states, including California, the nation's most populous.

Four states have already legalized marijuana at the ballot box, Colorado and Washington in 2012 and Alaska and Oregon in 2014. The District of Columbia also legalized marijuana -- but not commercial sales -- in 2014.

But those states combined only have a population of about 17 million people. Winning California alone would more than double that figure and winning all five states would triple it. If all five states vote for pot, we could wake up on November 9 with nearly a quarter of the nation living under marijuana legalization.

And that could finally lay the groundwork for serious progress on ending federal marijuana prohibition. With national opinion polls now consistently reporting majorities for pot legalization, public sentiment is shifting in favor of such a move, and if voters in these five states actually do legalize it, that sentiment will have been translated into political facts on the ground. Congress may finally begin to listen.

Still, it's not a done deal. Voters have to actually go to the polls and vote. But all five initiative campaigns are well-funded, increasingly with marijuana industry money and are in a position to significantly outspend the organized opposition. They also start from a generally favorable polling position, with leads in most of the states. And they can now point to the examples of the earlier legalization states, where, despite dire prediction, the sky has not fallen, and state treasuries are growing fat with pot fee and tax revenues.

Of the five states that will take up legalization in November, four have initiative campaigns organized under the imprimatur of the Marijuana Policy Project, whose "Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol" campaign proved so successful in Colorado. California is the one exception, with its initiative written by a group around tech billionaire Sean Parker and heavily influenced by the recommendations of the Blue Ribbon Commission on Marijuana Policy led by Democratic Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom.

Here are the five states and their initiatives:

1. Arizona -- Proposition 205. Sponsored by the Arizona Campaign to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol, the initiative would allow people 21 and over to possess up to an ounce of marijuana and grow up to six plants "in an enclosed, locked space within their residences." It would also create a state agency, the Department of Marijuana License and Control, to oversee legal, licensed marijuana commerce, but would limit the number of marijuana retail shops to one-tenth the number of liquor store licenses, which would be fewer than 180. The measure would allow localities to regulate or ban pot businesses, and it would impose a 15% excise tax on retail sales, with 80% of revenues earmarked for schools and 20% for substance abuse education. The measure does not allow for public use and does not remove existing penalties for possession of more than an ounce or six plants. That means possession of 28 grams is legal, but possession of 29 grams is a felony. The measure does not provide employment rights for marijuana user and it does not change the state's bizarrely strict drugged driving law, which criminalizes the presence of inactive marijuana metabolites, but does not require actual impairment to be proven.

The campaign has raised $2.2 million so far and may need to spend every cent to win. An April poll had Arizonans rejecting legalization 43%-49% and a July poll had legalization losing 39%-52%. Those numbers are going to be tough to overcome, but with normally rock-ribbed red state Arizona shifting to battleground state status this wacky election year, the state could be a pleasant surprise come Election Day.

2. California -- Proposition 64. The Adult Use of Marijuana Act (AUMA) initiative sponsored by Yes on 64 would allow people 21 and over to possess up to an ounce of marijuana and grow up to six plants, keeping the fruits of their harvest. It would also allow the unregulated gifting of up to a quarter-ounce of marijuana. The measure would also allow for licensed on-site marijuana consumption, or "cannabis cafes." It would allow for legal marijuana commerce regulated by a new Bureau of Marijuana Control, which would replace the existing Bureau of Medical Marijuana Regulation, and would impose a 15% retail sales tax and a $9.25 per ounce cultivation tax imposed at the wholesale level. In a nod to the state's existing ma-and-pa pot growing industry, the measure would license "micro-grows" (under 10,000 square feet), but would not allow "mega-grows" (more than ½ acre indoors or 1 acre outdoors) until 2023 at the earliest. Most remaining criminal offenses around marijuana would be reduced from felonies to misdemeanors. Cities and counties could opt out of marijuana commerce, but only by a vote of residents, and they could not ban personal possession or cultivation. The measure provides no employment protections for consumers and does not change existing impaired driving laws.

The campaign has raised $7.1 million so far, including $1.5 million from Sean parker, $1 million from Weedmaps founder Justin Hartfield, and significant contributions from the Marijuana Policy Project and Drug Policy Action, the campaign and lobbying arm of the Drug Policy Alliance. Fundraising is far exceeding the organized opposition, but in a state with a huge population and massive media markets, the campaign will need to double or even triple what it has raised so far.

The polling numbers are looking good, too. A February Probolsky Research poll had support for legalization at 59.9%, while a May Public Policy Institute of California poll echoed that with support at 60%. And the trend is upward -- the same Public Policy Institute of California poll had support at only 54% last year. California should go green on November 8.

3. Maine -- Question 1. Sponsored by the Maine Campaign to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol, the measure would allow people 21 and over to possess up to 2 ½ ounces of marijuana, six flowering plants, and 12 immature ones. People could also give up to 2 ½ ounces or six plants to other adults without remuneration. The measure would allow legal marijuana commerce regulated by the Department of Agriculture, Conservation and Forestry, with a 10% retail sales tax. The measure would also allow for on-site consumption, or "cannabis cafes," but would require that all pot purchased at such facilities be consumed there. Localities could regulate or ban commercial marijuana facilities.

Campaign supporters have only raised $692,000 so far, but Maine is a small state with a low population and isn't going to require millions to run a campaign. As in other initiative states, Maine opponents are trailing badly in fundraising, but will probably get some financial assistance from the prohibitionist Smart Approaches to Marijuana, which has vowed to put $2 million into the effort to defeat the five initiatives. Most of that money won't be going to Maine, though.

The polling numbers so far are encouraging, with a March MPRC poll showing 53.8% support and a May Critical Insights poll coming in at 55%. Those numbers aren't high enough for campaigners to rest easy, but they do suggest that victory is well within reach.

4. Massachusetts -- Question 4. The measure sponsored by the Massachusetts Campaign to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol would allow people 21 and over to possess up to an ounce of marijuana in public or 10 ounces at home, as well as allowing the cultivation of up to six plants and the possession of the fruits of the harvest. It would allow legal marijuana commerce regulated by a Cannabis Control Commission, and it includes a provision that would allow on-site consumption at licensed facilities, or "cannabis cafes." Localities would have the option of banning legal marijuana commerce enterprises. The measure would impose a 3.75% excise tax in addition to the state's 6.25% sales tax, making an effective tax rate of 10%. Localities could add local taxes of up to 2%, but they certainly couldn't collect them if they didn't allow marijuana businesses to operate. There are no employment protections for pot smokers, and the state's drugged driving laws would remain unchanged.

Will Massachusetts go green this year? It will be a nailbiter
Funding looks to be lagging in the Bay State, where supporters have only raised $500,000, less than in Maine, which has a significantly smaller population. Organized opposition in the form of the Campaign for a Safe and Healthy Massachusetts may be the strongest of any of the five states this year, with the governor, the mayor of Boston, and other leading public officials on board.

The polling suggests this will be a very tight race. A July 2014 poll had the state evenly split, with 48% supporting legalization and 47% opposed, and polling from last year was showing slight majorities for legalization. But a May poll had only 43% support, with 45.8% opposed, and a July poll had legalization at 41%, with 50% opposed.

5. Nevada -- Question 2. Sponsored by the Campaign to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol in Nevada, the measure would legalize the possession of up to one ounce by people 21 and over and would allow people to grow up to six plants -- but only if they live more than 25 miles from a retail marijuana store. The measure also creates a system of licensed marijuana commerce to be overseen by the state Department of Taxation. The measure would impose a 15% tax on wholesale marijuana sales, and retail sales would be subject to already existing sales taxes. The measure contains no provisions for on-site cannabis consumption, does not alter existing impaired driving laws, and does not provide employment rights for pot smokers.

The campaign has raised more than $1 million so far, including $625,000 from people in the marijuana industry. But it also faces significant opposition in the person of conservative money-bags Las Vegas casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, who gave $5 million to the campaign to defeat the 2014 Florida medical marijuana initiative. Adelson hasn't so far kicked in directly to defeat Question 2, but he has bought the state's largest newspaper, the Las Vegas Review-Journal, and flipped its editorial position from supporting legalization to opposing it.

Polling on the initiative campaign is scarce, but encouraging. A KTNV/Rasmussen poll just two weeks ago had the measure winning, 50% to 41%.

And there you have it. Given all the information available, our best estimate is that California is most likely to win, followed by Maine and Nevada. Arizona looks like the toughest nut to crack, followed by Massachusetts. We will know by the time the sun rises on November 9.

Chronicle AM: Thousands March in Berlin, Denver Could See "Cannabis Cafes," More... (8/15/16)

Look for marijuana legalization ads coming to Las Vegas, South Dakota continues to go after marijuana industry consultants, thousands march for pot legalization in Berlin, and more.

Berlin's 20th annual Hanfparade (Hemp parade) took place Saturday. (YouTube)
Marijuana Policy

Nevada Legalization Campaign Prepares $800,000 Ad Buy. The Campaign to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol in Nevada has reserved more than $800,000 worth of advertising time slots with major news stations in Las Vegas, where three-quarters of the state's population is. The campaign supports the Question 2 legalization initiative on the November ballot. The ads will run beginning in early October and go through Election Day.

Northern Marianas Legalization Initiative Won't Be on the Ballot. A bill that would have led to a popular vote on marijuana legalization has died in the Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas Islands (CNMI) legislature. Senator Sixto Igi-somar wanted the legislature of the US territory to move on the bill for a popular referendum, but the legislature was "too busy," he said.

South Dakota Indian Tribe Marijuana Consultant Pleads Guilty to Pot Charge. A consultant who worked with the Flandreau Santee Sioux Tribe to establish a marijuana resort after the federal government said Indian tribes were free to do pleaded guilty Monday to a state marijuana charge for receiving marijuana seeds sent from Amsterdam to start the tribe's crop. The tribe tore down the crop over fears the federal government spoke with forked tongue and over threats from the state government, which followed through by indicting two consultants. Consultant Jonathan Hunt is the one who pleaded guilty and agreed to cooperate; consultant Eric Hagen pleaded not guilty, and his lawyer says there is no evidence he ever possessed "even a gram of marijuana."

Denver Cannabis Club Initiative Campaign Hands in Signatures. The Neighborhood-Supported Cannabis Consumption Committee has turned in more than 10,000 signatures for a municipal initiative that would allow for cannabis clubs where people can consume on-site. They only need 4,726 valid voter signatures to qualify for the November ballot.


Thousand March for Marijuana Legalization in Berlin. An estimated 5,000 people took to the streets of the German capitol Saturday to call for freeing the weed. It was the 20th annual Hanfparade (hemp parade), and in this one, demonstrators marched under the banner "legalization is in the air." Marijuana is illegal in Germany though possession of small amounts is tolerated by police, and a few hundred people have been given allowances to use it for medical purposes.

New Zealand Poll Shows Strong Support for Marijuana Reforms. A poll commissioned by the New Zealand Drug Foundation finds that nearly two-third of Kiwis want marijuana either decriminalized or legalized. One-third (33%) said legalize it, while 31% said decriminalize it. More than half (52%) said there should also be provisions for people to grow the plant themselves.

Cayman Islands Will Move Forward on Allowing CBD Cannabis Oils. Premier Alden McLaughlin said his government will push through laws to allow the importation and dispensing of CBD cannabis oils, but he warned there are no guarantees patients in the island nation will be able to obtain it. "There are still real and serious practical hurdles to obtaining and importing this drug because it remains illegal in many jurisdictions, including nearby Jamaica," he said.

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