Marijuana Legalization Will Hurt Mexican Cartels, But How Much? [FEATURE]

Special to the Chronicle by Bernd Debusmann, Jr., who is currently studying for an MA in International Journalism at City University London. Prior to that, he lived and worked in his native Mexico, most of it as a full-time freelancer for Reuters TV, also contributing to Fox Latino. Earlier he worked as a reporter in New York City and as a freelance producer for the Reuters Latin American Television Desk in Washington DC, during which time he dealt with many drug trafficking stories. During 2010 and 2011 he authored the weekly Mexico Drug War Update published by this newsletter, available in our Mexican Drug War archive section.

Seven tons of Mexican brick weed seized in Arizona (cbp.gov)
On January 1, Colorado made history by becoming the first American state where marijuana can be purchased for recreational purposes, and in which marijuana is regulated from the seed to the actual sale of product. As attitudes in America begin to shift in favor of outright legalization, it increasingly seems possible that more states -- and eventually the entire country -- might follow. But what does this mean south of the border, where Mexican cartels make enormous profits by trafficking this illegal commodity?

Given the nature of the illegal drug business, arriving at a precise figure is impossible. At times, the Office of National Drug Policy has said that as much as 60% of cartel profits come from the production and sale of marijuana. On the other hand, a 2010 RAND study estimated the percentage to be between 15 and 26 percent. More recently, research by the Mexican Institute of Competiveness released in October 2012 suggests that if only Washington, Colorado and Oregon legalized marijuana, then cartel profits would fall as much as 30 percent.

Another variable which must be taken into account when analyzing the impact of legalization on the cartels is the nature of the organizations themselves. All of Mexico's criminal groups have a range of diverse business interests aside from marijuana, and most are considered poly-drug organizations, which make huge profits from methamphetamine, cocaine and other drugs. Some cartels, including the notorious Zetas, have gone beyond trafficking illicit goods and are now involved in prostitution, migrant smuggling, extortion, human trafficking, counterfeiting and oil theft.

On its own, legalization would not be able to bring an end to the activities of these groups, but -- whatever the actual figure -- legalization would have a definite financial impact. By some accounts, legalization in Colorado kept $5 million from the hands of criminals the first week, much of which, if the US government is to be believed, would have gone to Mexican traffickers.

The most immediate effect in Mexico would likely be felt in areas heavily involved in production, such as Michoacán or the "Golden Triangle" region that straddles Sinaloa, Durango and Chihuahua. Parts of this region are completely dominated by the cartels, who pay farmers to grow marijuana (and poppy, to a lesser extent). If the price of marijuana were to suddenly drop, the cartels that manage the production in that area would experience a significant decline in profits. Mexican analyst Alejandro Hope estimated that the Sinaloa Cartel stands to lose up to half of its profits from legalization in Colorado, Oregon and Washington alone.

Much of the power of cartels in Mexico stems from their ability to corrupt local authorities and buy protection. Whatever the precise figure, any legislation that disrupts the flow of money into cartel coffers benefits the Mexican government by allowing it to focus their resources elsewhere.

Mexico
Permission to Reprint: This article is licensed under a modified Creative Commons Attribution license.
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Legalize Marijuana

The information available only points to it [legalization] being the right thing to do to lessen crime, stop illegal drug trade [never will be 100% but anything close to it is good] and produce revenue for local and federal governments.

What is the hang up? Marijuana has been proven to have many medical uses and the commercial uses for industrial hemp [which has minute amounts of THC, the active ingredient in pot] are numbered in the thousands. From fuel to biodegradable plastics and building products that would be as much as 5 times stronger than wood and the list goes on.

The time is now

Oldsters, indoctrinated by government sponsored drug war rhetoric, expire daily while more open minded  and propaganda resistant youngsters reach voting age. This coincides with a better understanding by adults of all ages about  drug war costs socially (think wasted police efforts, incarceration/court/parole/probation) and dollar costs born by the taxpayer. Legalization will divert billions of dollars annually from drug lords to government coffers while reducing government expenses.

Marijuana, the most safe and sane of all outlawed drugs is the obvious poster child for legalization. Safer than alcohol, both to society and the users health, Marijuana approval has increased in every recent poll. Truth and momentum is on our side, act now for Cannabis legalization; talk to friends, volunteer for legalization efforts, and if you can afford it, place a little skin in the game (dollars). This publication DRCNet is a place to start, but mostly "think local/act local".

                              History is happening now..........join in and be a part of it.

   "Be the change you want to see in the world"          Mahatma Gandhi 1869-1948 

illegal taxation

the outrageous taxes on marijuana are illegal and Unconstitutional as we are guaranteed 'equal protection' under the law. Marijuana medicine is taxed and prescriptions are not; therefore taxation is illegal. As far as 'sin taxes' on marijuana , they should be taxed at far LESS than the dangerous drugs alcohol and cigarettes. Taxation will only increase the black-market and smuggling to avoid the taxes. keeps the drug war going while they rape the people of $$$ to fill their corrupt gangster government pockets. big gov gets taxes and the drug war. they must be laughing all the way to the bank.

Decriminalizing drug usage

Decriminalizing drug usage would mean smaller cartel payoffs to law enforcement, very non American to the thieves in three piece business suits at the DEA who run America's lost war on drugs.

anyone who disputes the use

anyone who disputes the use of marijuana for others have never smoked it properly, if they educated like they do with smoking and alcohol so you know not to smoke too much else you green out and get sick. or don't smoke a day before you drive. the ONLY reason why i can think of is they cannot test you on the spot for weed like they can alcohol so they just ban it so everyone with it can go to jail.

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