Late last night we basically wrote off the Arizona medical marijuana initiative, Proposition 203. With 97% of precincts reporting, we reported, the initiative was down by the frustratingly close margin of 50.3%-49.7%. I calculated that the remaining precincts would have to go 58% on average for the initiative -- not impossible, but unlikely when the state as a whole is eight points lower.
It turns out there was more to the story than we realized. As Not only did the final three percent of precincts continue to edge the initiative's yes vote upward -- to 49.74% -- but as reported in an MPP email this afternoon, there are 200,000-300,000 uncounted mail-in ballots that came in at the last minute and which have yet to be counted. Including those ballots in the count, it's 52% that need to break for 203, not 58% -- two points higher than the statewide average, but a more conceivable possibility than what I'd previously thought.
Stay tuned, and keep hope alive...
Update: Please see a more complete analysis we published on Wednesday, which includes an action alert for Arizonans.
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