Arizona Medical Marijuana Initiative Only 724 Votes Behind

After hovering between 2,000 and 7,000 votes behind since Election Day, Arizona's medical marijuana initiative, Proposition 203, went from 3,000 votes behind on Wednesday night, to 1,500 Thursday night, and at the time of this writing was just 724 votes shy of the lead.

Ballot counting continues until Tuesday, 11/16. The remaining ballots are a mix of late mail-ins (people who voted early by mail, but at the last minute) and provisional ballots (votes cast, but for which the voters' eligibility could not be documented on Election Day), but most are provisional. According to the Secretary of State's office they are from Maricopa County, the largest part of the state, and more conservative on average than the state as a whole. However, Maricopa ballots also were likely among the ones counted over the last two days.

If provisional voters across the state are a skewed sample relative to Arizona voters as a whole -- for example, some have speculated that members of the relatively less motivated Democratic voter base were activated by late get out the vote efforts -- then the remaining ballots could also skew the same way that the last two days worth have. If so, Prop 203 will pass.

In any case, with just 724 votes making the difference between the current yes and no count, it could go either way, or it could end up within a margin of 200 and go to a recount. Proposition 203 is very much in play after all.