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Oregon Marijuana Initiative Trailing Slightly in Poll

Submitted by Phillip Smith on (Issue #751)

The campaign behind an initiative that would legalize marijuana in Oregon has an uphill battle ahead, according to a new SurveyUSA poll. That poll has the initiative, known as Measure 80 on the ballot, trailing by a margin of 41% to 37%.

But SurveyUSA reported a margin of error on the poll of +/-4%, meaning that the contest is a virtual dead heat and, as Portland's KATU-TV, which paid for the poll, put it, "it could go either way."

Campaign supporters can also take some solace in the high number of undecided voters. More than one out of five (22%) of those surveyed had yet to make up their minds, meaning the Amendment 80 campaign still has time to attempt to bring them over to its side.

Paralleling polling date from the other 2012 marijuana legalization initiative states, the poll found a significant gap in support between men (42%) and women (33%). Likewise, among age groups, support was strongest among the 18-to-34 group (47%), followed by 50-to-64 (39%), 35-to-49 (36%), and then those over 65 (24%).

As in the other initiative states, the data appears to suggest that parents -- and especially mothers -- with children at home will be a crucial demographic to be won over if the initiative is to succeed. Compared with its brethren in Colorado and Washington, the Oregon campaign has been a low-budget affair, but these polling numbers suggest a healthy cash injection could be critical, especially in swaying the large undecided vote.

Permission to Reprint: This content is licensed under a modified Creative Commons Attribution license. Content of a purely educational nature in Drug War Chronicle appear courtesy of DRCNet Foundation, unless otherwise noted.

Comments

oregon native (not verified)

This is a bad law. It would give the state a monopoly on the cannabis market. We need to work on privatizing the liquor industry, as Washington did, not socializing the cannabis industry, which the Federal government will never allow anyway. We already have some of the most permissive cannabis laws in the world here, let's not ruin a good thing just so Paul Stanford can steal this industry from the people who built it.  

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 4:55pm Permalink
Neal Feldman (not verified)

In reply to by oregon native (not verified)

How is it a 'government monopoly' when anyone can grow their own without permission?

 

And where is Paul Stanford 'stealing' anything?

 

I don't think your position could be any more ridiculous.  Try reading the measure, you might be less misinformed.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 11:18pm Permalink
Bongstar420 (not verified)

In reply to by oregon native (not verified)

It might, but it will also do a better job of fighting the feds off since the State of Oregon would be charged with promoting Cannabis production and the producers/processors liability would be diminished since they wont be the "front end" of the market. I do not see how they are going to jail the board of the Oregon Cannabis Commission

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 11:20pm Permalink
yeahcool (not verified)

In reply to by Bongstar420 (not verified)

you are possibly the first and worst case of marijuana induced stupidity i have ever seen. leave this site you pro drug war troll. YES ON MEASURE 80

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 6:08am Permalink
oregon native (not verified)

This is a bad law. It would give the state a monopoly on the cannabis market. We need to work on privatizing the liquor industry, as Washington did, not socializing the cannabis industry, which the Federal government will never allow anyway. We already have some of the most permissive cannabis laws in the world here, let's not ruin a good thing just so Paul Stanford can steal this industry from the people who built it.  

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 4:56pm Permalink
yeahcool (not verified)

In reply to by oregon native (not verified)

you are either a fool or pro drug war. leave this site if you have a problem with immediate marijuana legalization. everyday that weed remains illegal equates to more people being locked up because of stupid morons like you.

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 6:06am Permalink
Garrett Bates (not verified)

In reply to by yeahcool (not verified)

If you read the text of the bill under Section 2:

 

"Section 2. A new state commission is hereby created and shall be named the Oregon Cannabis Commission, or the OCC. The OCC shall regulate the sale of cannabis and cultivation of cannabis for sale and shall assure the high quality of cannabis grown and processed under this Act. The OCC shall consist of seven commissioners. Initially, seven commissioners shall be appointed by the Governor before December 31, 2012 for a term of one year and they shall promulgate administrative rules, create systems and begin licensing applicants by February 28, 2013. Thereafter, five commissioners shall be elected at large by growers and processors licensed under ORS 474.035 for a term of one year, and two commissioners shall be appointed by the Governor for a term of two years. The OCC shall work to promote Oregon cannabis products in all legal national and international markets."

 

This bill immediately gives monopoly legislative power to the executive branch.  What kind of barriers to entry they will erect we don't know, but their nature is unlikely to favor merit, but rather political connection.  Once the politically-connected receive their licenses, only they and the governor will be allowed to determine who makes the rules concerning cannabis.  And you can bet it will be used to restrict competition in favor of existing growers.

A good model for this is areas in which the taxi industry is highly regulated.  A limited number of companies have their monopoly privilege enforced by the state onto would-be competitors and the public using the public's money to do so. What does it lead to? Reduced competition, ridiculously high prices for consumers and those that wish to enter the market, lower availability, and overall - a larger number of cars on the roadway.  If taxi service competition was legalized, we could maybe finally scrap public bus lines, too, which would be great because they suck so much money from the taxpayer.

If all you care about is increasing the availability of cannabis to the citizens of Oregon, then yes, this bill will probably do that.  Whatever problems arise from this system will be slow to change because the necessary level of competition won't be there.

Tue, 10/02/2012 - 10:44pm Permalink
yeahcool (not verified)

In reply to by oregon native (not verified)

are you brain damaged or just trolling? everyday that marijuana is illegal equates to more people having their lives ruined. open your eyes if you have a brain.

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 6:11am Permalink
jithin (not verified)

In Oregon I am not that sure that the poll to legalize the marijuana is being favored by the people. It seems that more than those against it, there are a lot of people hoping to make it legal.

Wed, 03/05/2014 - 8:33am Permalink

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