The Latest Polling on the Marijuana Legalization Initiatives

Today is the big day! Marijuana legalization is on the ballot in Washington, Oregon and Colorado. Medical marijuana is getting votes in Massachusetts, Arkansas and Montana. And California is voting on a much-needed reform to the states draconian "three strikes you're out" law -- not solely drug policy reform, but includes drug offenses within it. There are also some measures on local ballots. See Phil's report last week for an overview.

Phil and I will be posting late into the night tonight on all of the initiatives as well as candidate races of interest, here on the Speakeasy and in Drug War Chronicle. Phil is a few hours out from Denver, and so his reporting will be done live from where the Colorado action is. Check all of it out here at StoptheDrugWar.org.

In the meanwhile, what does the latest polling say? In Washington, polls conducted last month through early this month show I-502 leading by margins ranging from 4 to 19 points, with support ranging from 47 to 56 percent in favor and 36 to 44 percent opposed.

Polls in Colorado taken during the same timeframe show Amendment 64 in the lead with margins ranging from 10 points on the upper end down to just one end on the lower. Support ranges from 46 to 53 percent and opposition ranging from 40 to 45 percent.

According to the Denver Post (via Jacob Sullum), half of people who have already voted in say they voted yes on Amendment 64, but more than half of those planning to vote today plan to vote yes:

"Passage would be driven largely by the support of younger voters, who sometimes are less reliable, turnout-wise, than are older voters," the polling firm SurveyUSA, which conducted the survey for The Post, wrote in a memo explaining the results. "Older voters oppose Amendment 64, and if the amendment should go down to defeat, it will be because younger Coloradans talked the talk but did not walk the voting-booth walk."
 

No pressure or anything, young voters, says SSDP's Aaron Houston.

Only three polls have tested Oregon's Measure 80, one in late September and two in October. Support and opposition have both risen (not surprisingly, as undecided voters make up their minds), and the last one has the measure losing 49-42. Oregon reformers should still turn out to the polls, though -- margin matters, even in a defeat -- plus a poll is only a prediction -- the only poll that counts is the big one happening taken today.

See you online tonight!

Permission to Reprint: This article is licensed under a modified Creative Commons Attribution license.
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Most if not all will fail

Between the "calibrated" voting machines and stoners inability to get off the couch, most if not all the legalization efforts will fail.

Heya, I'm one of those

Heya, I'm one of those stoners in colorado. I'm a full time engineering physics honors student in one of the best physics programs in the nation , and trust me, all my friends and I are definatly making it to the polls

Heya I'm a Colorado stoner,

Heya I'm a Colorado stoner, full time engineering physics honors student in one of the best physics programs in the nation and I assure you, all the stoners and I will make it to the polls

Felt real good voting for Gary Johnson

but if I lived in Colorado or another swing state, I would have held my nose and voted to stop Romney.

Stop Romney from doing what

Stop Romney from doing what helping pull this country out of the [email protected]@t hole that Obama put us in!!  I don't really agree with everything they want to bring to office but i  believe that we can't do any worse then what Obama has already done.

Do you remember what happened in September 2008?

sounds like you have amnesia about it, like Romney and the Republican party do. Everything was fine until 1.20.09 to listen to you guys.

Prohibition endangers public safety

"The “war on drugs” has also generated indirect costs that many researchers contend have undermined public safety. The federal government has prioritized spending and grants for drug task forces and widespread drug interdiction efforts that often target low-level drug dealing. These highly organized and coordinated efforts have been very labor intensive for local law enforcement agencies with some unanticipated consequences for investigation of other crimes. The focus on drugs is believed to have redirected law enforcement resources that have resulted in more drunk driving, and decreased investigation and enforcement of violent crime laws. In Illinois, a 47% increase in drug arrests corresponded with a 22% decrease in arrests for drunk driving. Florida researchers have similarly linked the focus on low level drug arrests with an increase in the serious crime index."

—Drug Policy, Criminal Justice and Mass Imprisonment, by Bryan Stevenson

http://www.globalcommissionondrugs.org/Arquivos/Global_Com_Bryan_Stevenson.pdf 

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