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Not to belabor a point, but the effort to eradicate the Afghan opium trade is a mess. As is reported in this newsletter nearly every week, yet another indicator of how fruitless the task is came Sunday, when the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) reported that the Karzai government's eradication effort has "largely failed." According to FAO, this year's crop is near the level of the late 1990s and could bring more than $1 billion in farm gate revenues. Afghanistan's estimated Gross National Product was $21 billion in 1999, the last year for which statistics are available, and has almost certainly declined since then.

Although the Karzai government implemented an eradication program with British and US funds in April and swore as recently as last week to "fight like hell" to end the traffic, the UN sees even more opium coming next year. "The returns and opportunities are high and the risks are seen to be low given the large numbers of farmers involved and the perceived improbability of prosecutions," FAO concluded.

While according to the UN, as much as 25% of this spring's harvest may have been eradicated, the promised compensation has either not arrived, been diverted into the hands of local warlords or been insufficient. The program in Nangahar province, a prime growing area, also suffered after Abdul Qadir, who had visited villages to promise payment, was assassinated in Kabul last month. According to the Washington Post, villagers who had reluctantly allowed their crops to be uprooted after hearing promises of payment are now angry and desperate enough to begin replanting.

"We are not in love with the poppy. We grow it because we have to," one farmer told the Post. "The government destroyed our land and then paid us nothing. Our lands have all dried up. Even the trees have died. If we don't get our due soon, we are ready to start growing again."

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