Washington state's I-502 marijuana legalization, taxation, and regulation initiative appears headed for victory with increasing support, according to the latest KCTS 9 Washington Poll, released last Thursday. The poll had support among likely voters at 55.4% in surveys conducted during the second half of October, compared to 47.1% in surveys conducted in the first half of the month.
Similarly, opposition to I-502 was declining, from 40.1% earlier in the month to 37.6% in the second half of the month. The figures suggest that undecided voters have been breaking in favor of the initiative.
The 55.4% support figure includes 48.7% who are "certain yes" voters, 4.3% who are "yes -- could change," and 2.8% who are "undecided -- leaning yes." The 37.6% "no" figure includes 35.5% "certain no" voters, 1.6% "no -- could change," and 0.5% who are "undecided -- leaning no." Some 6.8% of voters remained truly undecided, while 0.3% said they would not vote on I-502.
I-502 is winning majorities of every age group except seniors (44%), including nearly three out of four (74.8%) voters under 30. It is running strongly (63%) in the progressive, heavily populated Puget Sound area and among Democrats (69.1%), men (64.2%), and independents (60%). It is doing less well with women, although women supporters (48.0%) outnumber opponents (40.6).
One-third (33.4%) of those surveyed have already voted, the poll found.
Pollsters surveyed 722 registered voters between October 18 and 31. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.6%.