As North Dakotans prepare to head to the polls in November to vote on the Proposition 3 marijuana legalization initiative, they rely on their state government to come up with an estimate of what it will cost taxpayers. It's not just this initiative—state law mandates that voters be informed of the potential budgetary impacts of any measure on the ballot.

North Dakota's Theodore Roosevelt National Park, where the prairies meet the badlands. (Creative Commons)

The OMB report put the cost of implementing the marijuana measure at $6.7 million, but two-thirds of that figure is to pay for a program not mandated in the initiative. OMB said it would take $2.2 million in clerical costs to expunge some 18,000 marijuana arrest records, as the initiative requires, but that it would also cost $4.4 million for a youth education campaign that the state Health Department argued would be necessary and the salaries of two full-time employees to run it for the next four years.

The Health Department may think such a campaign is necessary, but the initiative itself does not require—or even mention—any such campaign, and to include the Health Department's wish list in the measure's fiscal impact statement is just plain dishonest. That didn't stop Republican lawmakers from voting to approve it.

Democrats tried to stop them. House Minority Leader Corey Mock (D-Grand Forks) offered an amendment to approve the fiscal impact statement but omit the Health Department’s figures, with other costs to be determined.

"This does not lead to a $6.7 million fiscal impact. It’s a $2.2 million fiscal impact, with more that’s likely to happen but it cannot be determined," Mock said. "It will cost more than $2.2 million. We just don’t know how much."

The amendment failed on a 10-5 party line vote. The Legislative Management Committee then approved by the same margin a motion by House Majority Leader Al Carlson (R-Fargo) to accept the fiscal impact statement with the Health Department's cost estimate included.

Sen. Erin Oban (D-Bismarck) told the Bismarck Tribune after the vote that the fiscal impact statement as passed amounted to a lie.

"There seems to be a disagreement among this committee about what we want versus what the language in the measure actually says," Oban said. "I think there was universal agreement, probably around this table, about wanting, if Measure 3 passed, an education campaign from the health department about the impacts of marijuana, especially on youth, for prevention purposes. But the measure does not require that. To me, it is lying to claim that Measure 3 required that because it didn’t."

One Republican lawmaker, Sen. Jerry Klein (R-Fessenden), defended including the Health Department costs on rather dubious grounds.

"Until the measures are passed, and the Legislature and all the agencies can dig in and put an actual cost on it, I think our job has been simply to approve something that somebody said might cost this," Klein told the Tribune.

The Health Department argued that because it has a responsibility to protect the health and welfare of North Dakotans, the educational campaign would be warranted, but again, it is not mandated in the initiative itself, and the Health Department doesn't exactly have a great record when it comes to marijuana measures.

As North Dakota columnist and political blogger Rob Port pointed out in a column laying into the shady cost estimates, the Health Department was way, way off in its estimate of the costs of the successful 2016 medical marijuana initiative there.

"What people should keep in mind is that two years ago when the health department presented their information on what they estimated to be the cost of medical marijuana if it passed they said $8.7 million," he quoted one lawmaker as telling him after the vote. "For fiscal year ending June 30, 2018, their actual cost was $363,000."

That inflated figure didn't stop voters from approving medical marijuana in 2016. Perhaps the inflated figure this year won't stop voters from approving marijuana legalization in 2018, but it would be better if North Dakota Republicans could just be honest about the costs.

New polls show strong support for marijuana legalization in Michigan and New Jersey, the Manhattan DA throws out 3,000 pot cases, Denver mushroom activists are pushing a new initiative, and more.

The Denver magic mushroom people are trying another initiative, this one aimed at May 2019 local elections. (Creative Commons)

Michigan Poll Has Marijuana Initiative Winning. Yet another poll has the Proposal 1 marijuana legalization initiative winning in November. A new Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll has the measure winning with 56% support, in line with earlier polls. "What's interesting is how consistent these numbers have been over two years," said pollster Richard Czuba of the Lansing-based Glengariff Group Inc., which conducted the survey. "There are hardly any undecided people left on this issue. It's baked into the electorate."

New Jersey Poll Has a Plurality for Legal Pot, A Majority If It Cuts Taxes. A private survey obtained by NJ Advance Media has support for legalization at 44%, with 31% opposed. But when asked if they supported legalization if it meant less of a tax burden on residents, 53% said yes. The poll comes as legislative leaders and Gov. Phil Murphy (D) prepare to try to push legalization through the legislature this fall.

Manhattan DA Throws Out 3,000 Marijuana Cases. Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr. on Wednesday dismissed more than 3,000 marijuana smoking and possession cases, some of them dating back to 1978. "Outstanding warrants for these low-level cases drive law enforcement and our communities apart," Vance said. "New Yorkers with warrants face unnecessary loss of employment, housing and immigration consequences, and because many of them fear they will be arrested for an open warrant, they don't collaborate with the (New York Police Department) and district attorneys to keep our communities safe." As of September 1, New York City residents are no longer subject to arrest for small-time pot offenses, and now, Vance is undoing some of the past damage.

Medical Marijuana

Arizona Patient Appeals Ruling That Edibles Are Illegal. Rodney Jones, who was convicted of possessing 0.05 ounces of hashish and sentenced to 2 ½ years in prison, is appealing a state Court of Appeals ruling that upheld his conviction. In that ruling, the appeals court held that hashish and edibles made from marijuana extracts are not covered by the state's medical marijuana law and their possession remains a crime. Jones spent a year behind bars awaiting trial and has since been released, but he still wants the conviction overturned and the appeals court's interpretation of the law thrown out.

Psychedelics

Denver Activists Look to May 2019 Magic Mushroom Initiative. Members of a group calling itself Denver for Psilocybin submitted two initiatives Monday that would essentially allow city residents to consume psychedelic mushrooms without facing legal trouble. Both initiatives would "prohibit the city from spending resources to impose criminal penalties for the person use and possession of psychedelic mushroom" and neither allows for the sale of the famous fungi. One initiative would decriminalize "the personal possession, use, and propagation" of magic mushrooms with no amount limits, while a second, backup initiative would only decriminalize use and possession -- not propagation -- and set a possession limit of two ounces. The initiatives must now be approved by city officials before they can go to the signature-gathering phase.

A new Utah poll has the medical marijuana initiative still doing well, Los Angeles cracks down on illicit pot shops, the US and Ecuador renew cooperation in anti-drug air operations, Bolivia's Evo faces problems, and more.

Bolivian President Evo Morales is getting opposition from a group that should constitute his base: coca farmers. (CC)

Los Angeles Arrests More Than 500 in Crackdown on Illicit Pot Shops. A crackdown on unlicensed marijuana businesses in the city has ended with more than 500 people arrested on misdemeanor charges, the city attorney's office said. The charges come in 120 separate criminal cases filed in connection with 105 unlicensed businesses. The defendants are charged with unlicensed commercial cannabis activity within the city, which carries a potential sentence of six months in jail and $1,000 in fines. There are 165 licensed pot shops and delivery services in the city, but many shops persist in selling without a license.

Medical Marijuana

New Utah Poll Shows Continuing Support for Medical Marijuana Initiative. Despite the Church of Latter Day Saints coming out against the Proposition 2 medical marijuana initiative, support for the measure remains strong, a new poll finds. The poll had 64% either "somewhat" or "strongly" in support of the measure.

Foreign Policy

Sentencing

Oklahoma Could Cut Prison Population in Half, Report Says. A new report from the American Civil Liberties Union's Campaign for Smart Justice and the nonpartisan policy organization the Urban Institute finds that Oklahoma has surpassed Louisiana in having the most prisoners per capita, but that the state can take measures to reduce the prison population. Those include ending mandatory minimum sentencing, shifting more discretionary power in sentencing to judges, but the report said the move that would have the most dramatic impact on population would be to focus on drug sentences. The report recommended slashing the time served for drug distribution by 60%, from an average of 3.3 years to 1.3 years. That move alone would create a 22.5% drop in the prison population by 2025, the report said.

International

Bolivian Coca Farmers Demonstrate Against Their Former Coca Grower President. Thousands of coca growers took to the streets of La Paz on Wednesday in opposition to the government of President Evo Morales, himself a former coca grower and union leader. The protestors say the government's coca eradication efforts have hurt their livelihoods and led to the death of at least two of the members.

Colombian Riot Police Break Up Bogota Marijuana "Smoke-a-Thon". Riot police in Bogota on Thursday broke up a "smoke-a-thon" defending the use of marijuana. The demonstration was called to protest President Ivan Duque's moves to tighten the country's drug laws, which allow people to possess small amounts of marijuana. Duque recently issued a decree allowing police to seize any drug consumed in public. The Bogota demonstration was quickly dispersed, with at least a half-dozen people arrested as clashes broke out.

Nigerian Presidential Candidate Wants to Make Country Marijuana Export Giant. Omoyele Sowore, a publisher and presidential hopeful in Nigeria says he will make the country a marijuana exporting hub if elected as president. Sowore said many other countries are making billions from the plant, while people in Nigeria are being jailed for it. "Some of the best weeds in the world are grown in Ekiti state. I'm very serious. People are making billions out of that particular plant that is very potent in Nigeria. We should be focusing on it. We have to start taking care of our weed (Igbo), such that we can also contribute to the GDP of the world," he said. "Our NDLEA (National Drug Law Enforcement Agency) should get the notice, memo in advance that Nigeria will be exporting weed to cure cancer in other parts of the world. Instead of chasing after people who are growing weed whereas we are not chasing after our politicians who are smoking cocaine in their houses."

Nine states and the District of Columbia have legalized marijuana since 2012, but all of those states have been in the West or the Northeast. This year, with marijuana legalization on the ballot in Michigan as well as North Dakota, legal weed could make a heartland breakthrough.

Two of these states -- Missouri and North Dakota -- also have incumbent Democratic senators up for reelection in tough campaigns this fall. Whether voters motivated by marijuana could help Claire McCaskill and Heidi Heitkamp retain their seats remains to be seen, but pot at the polls will generate interest among more liberal voters.

We could see New Jersey move quickly and legalize weed via the legislature sometime in the next two months, but barring that, it looks like we'll see at least one, and quite possibly two, new marijuana legalization states come election day and, most likely, two more medical marijuana states.

Here we go:

Michigan

Michigan is poised to become marijuana legalization's Midwest breakout state. The Coalition to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol has qualified a marijuana legalization initiative, Proposal 1, for the November ballot.

The measure would legalize the possession up to 2.5 ounces of pot for personal use and up to 10 ounces at home, as well as allowing for the personal cultivation of up to 12 plants and the fruits of that harvest. It also creates a system of taxed and regulated marijuana commerce, with a 10 percent excise tax at the retail level in addition to the 6 percent sales tax. The measure would give cities and counties the option of allowing pot businesses or not.

The initiative looks well-positioned to win in November. A February poll had support for legalization in Michigan at 57 percent, while a March poll came in at 61 percent. The most recent poll, from May, had support holding steady at 61 percent. Those are the kinds of polling numbers initiative and referendum experts like to see at the beginning of the campaign because they suggest that even with the inevitable erosion of support in the face of opposition attacks, the measure still has a big enough cushion to pull off a victory.

Missouri

Missouri voters will be able to choose from not one, not two, but three separate medical marijuana measures when they go to the polls in November. Two are constitutional amendments; one is a statutory initiative that could more easily be modified by the legislature.

Amendment 2, sponsored by New Approach Missouri, would allow doctors to recommend medical cannabis for any condition they see fit. Registered patients and caregivers would be allowed to grow up to six marijuana plants and purchase up to four ounces from dispensaries per month. Medical cannabis sales at dispensaries would be taxed at 4 percent.

Amendment 3, sponsored by Find the Cures, would let doctors recommend medical marijuana to patients who have any of a specific list of qualifying conditions (while regulators would be able to add more conditions in the future). The retail sales tax on medical marijuana would be set at the much higher rate of 15 percent. Funds would be used to support research with the aim of developing cures and treatments for cancer and other diseases.

Proposition C, backed by Missourians for Patient Care, also outlines a list of specific conditions that would qualify patients to legally use medical cannabis. Sales would be taxed at 2 percent.

An August poll conducted by TJP strategies had support for amending the state constitution to allow medical marijuana at 54 percent.

That there are three separate measures on the ballot could lead to some confusion. If multiple ballot measures on the same topic pass, the one with the most votes generally prevails. But because in this case two of the measures are constitutional amendments and one is a statutory measure, if the statutory measure gets more votes than either of the amendments, but at least one of them passes, it could be up to the state's court system to figure out which goes into effect.

While there is nothing stopping voters from voting "yes" on all three measures, there are also concerns that the multiplicity of options could result in splitting the pro-medical marijuana vote, with some voting "yes" on only one measure and "no" on the others. In this election, when it comes to medical marijuana, Missouri may have too much of a good thing.

North Dakota

The winds of change are blowing across the northern prairies. Just two years ago, North Dakota voters approved a medical marijuana initiative, and this year, a grassroots group, Legalize ND, managed to get enough signatures to get Measure 3, the Marijuana Legalization and Automatic Expungement initiative, on the November ballot.

This is a radical initiative. It would legalize all forms of marijuana for adults by removing marijuana, THC, and hashish from the state's controlled substance schedules, and it sets no limits on the amount of marijuana people could possess or how many plants they grow. It also provides for the automatic expungement of criminal convictions for anyone convicted of a marijuana-related crime that would be legal under the measure.

And it does not create a framework for regulated marijuana sales, nor does it set any taxes. Creating a system of taxed and regulated marijuana commerce would be up to the state legislature.

North Dakota is a deep red state -- Donald Trump got more than twice as many votes as Hillary Clinton in 2016 -- but the only poll done so far has the initiative leading. The June poll, commissioned by Legalize ND and conducted by the Florida-based Kitchen Group, had the initiative winning 46 percent to 39 percent, with 15 percent undecided.

That's good but not great news for Legalize ND. Yes, the initiative is leading, but the conventional wisdom among initiative and referendum watchers is that campaigns should be starting off with at least 60 percent support -- the assumption being that inevitable organized opposition is going to eat away at support levels in the final weeks of the campaign.

Utah

Sponsored by the Utah Patients Coalition, the medical marijuana statutory initiative, Proposition 2, has qualified for the November ballot. The bottom-up effort comes after the state legislature has refused to advance meaningful medical marijuana legislation.

Under the measure, people who suffer from one of a list of designated qualifying medical conditions could receive a medical marijuana card with a physician's recommendation. That would entitle them to possess up to two ounces of marijuana or any amount of a marijuana product with up to 10 grams of THC. Patients could not grow their own unless they live more than 100 miles from a dispensary. And the patients cannot smoke marijuana.

The measure has received opposition from the Church of Latter Day Saints (Mormons), but even church members don't appear to be heading the leadership on this one. A Utah Policy poll released Tuesday has support for the measure at 64 percent. Among Mormons, the church's active opposition has swayed only "very active" church members, who now narrowly oppose the measure. But "somewhat active" and "former" Mormons both overwhelmingly support it. It looks like medical marijuana is coming to the Land of Deseret.