With less than two weeks to go to Election Day, its looking like a mixed picture for state-level marijuana policy initiatives. There are two states -- Michigan and North Dakota -- with marijuana legalization on the ballot and there are two more states -- Michigan and Utah -- with medical marijuana initiatives on the ballot.

It's possible that all four will pass, but it's looking more likely in Michigan and Missouri than in North Dakota and Utah. In North Dakota, well-funded opposition may drown out the legalization message, while in Utah, late maneuvering by the Mormon church and state political leaders is undercutting support from what had previously appeared to be a measure cruising toward victory.

Here's a quick recap of the initiatives and their prospects:

Michigan

Michigan is poised to become marijuana legalization's Midwest breakout state. The Coalition to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol has qualified a marijuana legalization initiative, Proposal 1, for the November ballot.

The measure would legalize the possession up to 2.5 ounces of pot for personal use and up to 10 ounces at home, as well as allowing for the personal cultivation of up to 12 plants and the fruits of that harvest. It also creates a system of taxed and regulated marijuana commerce, with a 10 percent excise tax at the retail level in addition to the 6 percent sales tax. The measure would give cities and counties the option of allowing pot businesses or not.

The initiative looks well-positioned to win in November. It had been holding steady at 61 percent support as late as May, the kind of polling numbers initiative and referendum experts like to see at the beginning of the campaign because they suggest that even with the inevitable erosion of support in the face of opposition attacks, the measure still has a big enough cushion to pull off a victory.

Support had indeed declined in the final weeks of the campaign as limited opposition finally emerged, but a September Detroit Free Press poll still has it winning with 55 percent of the vote and only three percent undecided and a September Detroit News poll had it winning with 56 percent.

Missouri

Missouri voters will be able to choose from not one, not two, but three separate medical marijuana measures when they go to the polls in November. Two are constitutional amendments; one is a statutory initiative that could more easily be modified by the legislature.

Amendment 2, sponsored by New Approach Missouri, would allow doctors to recommend medical cannabis for any condition they see fit. Registered patients and caregivers would be allowed to grow up to six marijuana plants and purchase up to four ounces from dispensaries per month. Medical cannabis sales at dispensaries would be taxed at 4 percent.

Amendment 3, sponsored by Find the Cures, would let doctors recommend medical marijuana to patients who have any of a specific list of qualifying conditions (while regulators would be able to add more conditions in the future). The retail sales tax on medical marijuana would be set at the much higher rate of 15 percent. Funds would be used to support research with the aim of developing cures and treatments for cancer and other diseases.

Proposition C, backed by Missourians for Patient Care, also outlines a list of specific conditions that would qualify patients to legally use medical cannabis. Sales would be taxed at 2 percent.

An August poll conducted by TJP strategies had support for amending the state constitution to allow medical marijuana at 54 percent.

That there are three separate measures on the ballot could lead to some confusion. If multiple ballot measures on the same topic pass, the one with the most votes generally prevails. But because in this case two of the measures are constitutional amendments and one is a statutory measure, if the statutory measure gets more votes than either of the amendments, but at least one of them passes, it could be up to the state's court system to figure out which goes into effect.

While there is nothing stopping voters from voting "yes" on all three measures, there are also concerns that the multiplicity of options could result in splitting the pro-medical marijuana vote, with some voting "yes" on only one measure and "no" on the others. In this election, when it comes to medical marijuana, Missouri may have too much of a good thing.

There has been no more recent polling, but with 93% of the nation backing medical cannabis in an April 2018 Quinnipiac University poll, it's likely that Missouri isn't going to buck the trend. The fundraising also points toward a successful campaign. Both New Approach Missouri and Find the Cure have raised more than a million dollars over the course of the campaign and both still have tens of thousands of dollars banked for the final push. The only ballot committee opposed to both campaigns, Citizens for Safe Medicine, was just registered last month and has reported no donations or expenditures.

North Dakota

This year, a grassroots group, Legalize ND, managed to get enough signatures to get Measure 3, the Marijuana Legalization and Automatic Expungement initiative, on the November ballot.

This is a radical initiative. It would legalize all forms of marijuana for adults by removing marijuana, THC, and hashish from the state's controlled substance schedules, and it sets no limits on the amount of marijuana people could possess or how many plants they grow. It also provides for the automatic expungement of criminal convictions for anyone convicted of a marijuana-related crime that would be legal under the measure.

And it does not create a framework for regulated marijuana sales, nor does it set any taxes. Creating a system of taxed and regulated marijuana commerce would be up to the state legislature.

Legalize ND faces the toughest odds. While a June poll, commissioned by Legalize ND and conducted by the Florida-based Kitchen Group, had the initiative winning 46 percent to 39 percent, with 15 percent undecided and a poll this month, also commissioned by Legalize ND had it winning with 51 percent to 36 percent, two other recent polls have support at under 40 percent.

It also faces the toughest organized opposition, which is heavily out-fundraising it. While Legalize ND has raised less than $30,000 in cash and in-kind contributions, the national anti-marijuana lobbying group Smart Approaches to Marijuana (SAM) has provided 100 percent of the contributions to Healthy and Productive North Dakota, an amount totaling more than $156,000.

A separate anti-initiative committee, North Dakotans Against the Legalization of Recreational Marijuana, which represents business groups and is headed by the director of government affairs for the state Chamber of Commerce, has raised $86,000. If Legalize ND can pull off a victory, it will be sweet, indeed, but it's looking like an uphill battle.

Utah

Sponsored by the Utah Patients Coalition, the medical marijuana statutory initiative, Proposition 2, has qualified for the November ballot. The bottom-up effort comes after the state legislature has refused to advance meaningful medical marijuana legislation.

Under the measure, people who suffer from one of a list of designated qualifying medical conditions could receive a medical marijuana card with a physician's recommendation. That would entitle them to possess up to two ounces of marijuana or any amount of a marijuana product with up to 10 grams of THC. Patients could not grow their own unless they live more than 100 miles from a dispensary. And the patients cannot smoke marijuana.

A Utah Policy poll released in September had support for the measure at 64 percent, with even Mormons generally breaking with the church leadership on the issue. But after that poll was released, state political leaders, advocates, and the Mormon church announced they'd agreed on a medical marijuana plan that lawmakers would consider in a November special session. That has, to some degree, cut the legs out from under the initiative.

A Salt Lake Tribune poll released last week had support dropping to only 51 percent, with 46 percent opposed. What looked like a cakewalk just a few weeks ago has turned into a nailbiter.

There you have it. Marijuana could go four for four this year, but it's not at all at da one deal, and we may end up having to settle for only three or maybe even two out of four. Going only 50-50 on marijuana initiatives would be the worst performance of the modern era. Let's hope 2018 doesn't earn that distinction.

Two of the country's top polling organizations have released surveys this month showing support for marijuana legalization continues to increase and is now at record highs. A Gallup poll released Monday had support at 69 percent, while a Pew Research Center poll released two weeks earlier had support at 62 percent.

The Gallup figure is up two points over last year, while Pew is up one. More impressively, the percentage of people supporting legalization nationwide has doubled since 2000, when both polls reported support at only 31 percent.

"There is a growing sense among the US population that it is time to end our nation's failed experiment with marijuana prohibition," responded Steve Hawkins, executive director of the Marijuana Policy Project (MPP). "People are sick and tired of adults being treated like criminals simply for consuming a substance that is, by every objective measure, less harmful than alcohol. Americans are more informed about cannabis than ever before, and they can now see that regulation is a viable and effective alternative to prohibition."

Gallup's levels of support are slightly more favorable toward legalization than Pew's, most likely due to methodological differences. In addition to the seven-point spread between the two on legalization, Pew, for example, reports a majority of Republicans still opposing legalization, while Gallup reports a first-time Republican majority in favor.

Pro-marijuana majorities can now be found across every demographic measured in the Gallup poll. Not only 53 percent of Republicans, but 71 percent of independents and three-quarters of Democrats want to free the weed, now even older Americans do, too. For the first time, a majority of those aged 55 and over (59 percent) support legalization, along with nearly two in three adults between 35 and 44 and a whopping 78 percent of 18-to-34-year-olds.

And support for legalization is now truly nationwide in the Gallup poll. As recently as 2010, only the West reported a marijuana majority, but now support is at 65 percent in the West, Midwest, and South, and even two points higher in the East.

The Pew poll found a few demographic groups not reporting majorities for legalization. In addition to Republicans, only 48 percent of Hispanics, 43 percent of white evangelicals, only 39 percent of the "Silent Generation" (people over age 75) could get behind it. But all other races, age groups, religious denominations (and atheists), and educational levels reported majorities for legalization.

The poll numbers reflect an increasing acceptance of weed as the country grows accustomed to the idea of marijuana being sold in stores (and taxed!) instead of in back alleyways. Nine states, the District of Columbia, and the territory of the Northern Marshall Islands already have legal marijuana, and another 21 allow for medical marijuana.

Four more states are voting on marijuana next month; Michigan and North Dakota on legalization, and Missouri and Utah on medical marijuana. And pot could play a role in the congressional races, too. The Democrats are already embracing it, and Republicans risk being left in the lurch.

"There are not many issues out there that enjoy majority support among both of the major political parties and in every region of the country," said MPP's Hawkins. "This support is consistently translating into wins at the ballot box, and it should further motivate elected officials to take action at the state and federal levels. Hopefully, lawmakers are paying attention to this clear trend in public opinion. If they ignore these poll numbers, they do so at the risk of seeing a drop in their own."

This article was produced by Drug Reporter, a project of the Independent Media Institute.

Take the time to comment on how marijuana should be classified under international drug treaties, an Indiana legislative committee rejects medical marijuana, Ohio's Democratic gubernatorial candidate resorts to drug war rhetoric, and more.

Marijuana Policy

You Can Comment on How Marijuana Should Be Classified Under International Treaties. The Food and Drug Administration is accepting public comment until October 31 on how marijuana should be classified under international drug treaties. The World Health Organization will meet next month in Geneva to consider "the legitimate use, harmful use, status of national control and potential impact of international control," of marijuana and other substances, including synthetic cannabinoids and fentanyl.

Illinois Democratic Legislators Plan New Legalization Bill Next Year. State Sen. Heather Sterns (D-Chicago) and state Rep. Kelly Cassidy (D-Chicago) told a Des Plaines town hall Wednesday they are planning to reintroduce a revised draft of their Cannabis Regulation and Taxation Act when the legislature reconvenes in January.

Medical Marijuana

Indiana Study Committee Doesn't Recommend Medical Marijuana Legalization. After hearing hours of testimony Thursday, the legislature's GOP-dominated interim study committee on public health rejected a recommendation to the full legislature that medical marijuana be legalized to treat chronic health conditions. The committee also rejected any further study of medical marijuana. But one Republican lawmaker, state Rep. Jim Lucas (R-Seymour) said he planned to file a medical marijuana bill next year anyway. "I'm going to make it my mission as a legislator, as a fellow Hoosier, to make sure that this issue moves forward," Lucas said.

Drug Policy

Ohio Democratic Gubernatorial Candidate Resorts to "Tough on Drugs" Rhetoric. Democratic gubernatorial nominee Richard Cordray is resorting to old school war on drugs rhetoric as the clock ticks down on his tight race with Republican Mike DeWine winds down. Cordray has released a new ad featuring an Ohio sheriff boasting that Cordray "has called for longer sentences for drug dealers." The ad is true: Cordray has said that, as governor, he "will work with law enforcement to make sure drug dealers are convicted and serve long prison sentences." He's still not as pro-drug war as DeWine, who also wants longer sentences for drug dealers, but who opposes the state's Issue 1 ballot initiative that would defelonize drug possession. Cordray supports that.

(This article was prepared by StoptheDrugWar.org's 501(c)(4) lobbying nonprofit, the Drug Reform Coordination Network, which also pays the cost of maintaining this website. DRCNet Foundation takes no positions on candidates for public office, in compliance with section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code, and does not pay for reporting that could be interpreted or misinterpreted as doing so.)

Marijuana is now legal in Canada, the Canadian government moves to allow pardons for people busted with small amounts of it, a Vermont governor's council rejects safe injection sites, and more.

Marijuana Policy

North Dakota Legalization Opponents Get Big Out-of-State Bucks. Opponents of the Measure 3 legalization initiative are far out-fundraising proponents, thanks almost entirely to an out-of-state anti-marijuana group and in-state business groups. The anti-legalization SAM (Smart About Marijuana) has provided 100% of the funding for Healthy and Productive North Dakota, giving more than $50,000 in cash and more than $100,000 in in-kind donations, while a second anti-pot political action committee, North Dakotans Against the Legalization of Recreational Marijuana, has raised more than $116,000 from in-state business groups and political figures. Pro-legalization PACS have received only about $10,000 in cash and $14,000 in in-kind donations, with over half the cash coming from donations of under $100.

Harm Reduction

Vermont Governor's Opioid Council Rejects Safe Injection Sites. Gov. Phil Scott's (R) Opioid Coordination Council released a report Monday in which it says that the risks of operating a safe injection site outweigh any potential benefits of reducing overdoses and getting more people in treatment. Safe injection sites are "not a viable option for Vermont," the report says. "They are illegal under federal law and highly controversial. Cost-effectiveness and neighborhood impacts are unknown. Most importantly, they have an unproven track record of harm reduction and for providing a pathway to treatment." Some state officials support safe injection sites, but the council concluded that more study on the sites' effectiveness is needed.

International

Canada Legalizes Marijuana Today. Legal marijuana sales and commerce began in Canada today, just four months after the parliament approved marijuana legalization legislation. The first sale was made at 12:01am in Newfoundland. Canada becomes the second nation to free the weed, after Uruguay, and the largest national legal marijuana market. (It's still smaller than the legal market in the US state of California.)

Canada Will Pardon People Busted With Less Than 30 Grams of Marijuana. As the country enters the era of legal marijuana, the government is moving to pardon people who were arrested for possession of less than 30 grams of weed -- the amount now legal for personal possession.  People seeking pardons will have to apply for them.