The people trying to legalize marijuana in Alaska are in for a tough battle, if the most recent Public Policy Polling survey is any indicator. That poll, taken at the end of July and the beginning of this month, has the marijuana legalization initiative trailing, 44% to 49%.

[image:1 align:left]That's a reversal from PPP's last poll on the topic in May, which had the initiative leading by a margin of 48% to 45%.

Neither set of numbers is likely to lead to smiling faces at the Campaign to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol in Alaska, the group behind Measure 2. The conventional wisdom among initiative experts is that they should be polling 60% or better when the campaign begins.

Support for legalization is strong among very liberal (70%), liberal (67%), and moderate (54%) Alaskans. The problem is that Alaska is not a very liberal state. Only 24% of those polled described themselves as liberal or very liberal, while 43% described themselves as conservative or very conservative. Only a third (33%) of conservative voters support the initiative, and only a sixth (16^%) of very conservative voters did so.

That sentiment appears to extend to a demographic that generally supports marijuana legalization: young people. While, nationally, around two-thirds of voters 18 to 29 support legalization, in the PPP Alaska poll that figure was only 48%.

But, as Firedog Lake's Jon Walker pointed out, Alaska is a relatively tough place to poll accurately because of its small population, economic diversity, and geographic size. Measure 2 supporters are going to have to hope that those difficulties mean that these poll results are an artifact, not an omen. But they will be doing more than hoping as the campaign heads for its final couple of months.