PPIC Poll: Prop 19 Behind 49% to 44%

Submitted by Phillip Smith on (Issue #654)
Drug War Issues
Politics & Advocacy

Proposition 19, the initiative to legalize, regulate, and tax marijuana in California, has lost support and is now trailing, according to poll results released Wednesday by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC). The landline and cell phone poll of 2,002 adults surveyed between October 10 and 17 has Prop 19 losing, 49% to 44%, with 7% undecided.

The numbers for Prop 19 are down eights from PPIC's September poll, which had it winning with 52%. But they are almost the mirror image of SurveyUSA poll also released Wednesday that showed Prop 19 leading 48% to 44%.

In the new PPIC poll, the initiative lost significant support among independents (from 65% to 40%) and Latinos (63% to 42%), and among almost all demographic groups. Whites are now more likely to oppose the support Prop 19 by a thin margin, a reversal from last month.

This poll is the fifth of 15 polls taken this year to show Prop 19 trailing. Ten others had it ahead, but only four of them had it at 50% or over, and the last one to do so was last month's PPIC poll. According to the Talking Points Memo Polltracker, the average of all polls has Prop 19 leading 46.8% to 44.5%.  As of publication time, it had not been updated with Wednesday's two polls, but in terms of the poll averages, they would be a wash.

This is going to get very tense for the next 12 days.

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DamianN (not verified)

I'm migrating ever closer to the edge of my seat. We as a country, that still has great influence on the world, need this to pass. The momentum of this measure can change future history.



Thu, 10/21/2010 - 5:14am Permalink

We need everyone's help to make phone calls to get out the vote. Even if you don't live in California, please go to http://yeson19.com/call to create an account, learn the script, and start making calls. It's easy.

This race is so close that it will come down to how many of our supporters we can get to actually vote. Execution is key.

YES on 19!

Thu, 10/21/2010 - 8:40am Permalink
Giordano (not verified)

The PPIC poll is funded by the James Irvine Foundation which owns and leases thousands of acres of land comprising commercial and private residences in SoCal, also known as the Irvine Ranch.

The foundation does much for California and its citizens, but its political philosophy is right wing, just like the city of Irvine itself.  Since one of the foundation’s interests is the ‘little children’ it wouldn’t surprise me if the PPIC polling procedure draws on politically conservative Californians.  The PPIC may be going further in attempting to engage in push polling on the Prop 19 referendum.

Regardless, everyone who doesn’t want to be busted for weed needs to vote.  Anyone already busted for weed also needs to vote.  Early voting is showing a big turnout for California Democrats, which is good, but everyone in California still needs to pitch in.


Thu, 10/21/2010 - 12:26pm Permalink
Moonrider (not verified)

In reply to by Giordano (not verified)

True conservatives should support drug law reform efforts, because true conservatives want a small government that does not interfere in the personal lives of its citizens.  Most of those who call themselves Republicans are not true conservatives, most libertarians are tho most libertarians also prefer to call themselves classical liberals.  

On the other hand, Democrats are not your friends, either, not if you want an end to the war on drug(user)s.

Fri, 10/22/2010 - 2:09am Permalink
Giordano (not verified)

In reply to by Moonrider (not verified)

I’m not sure what ‘true conservative’ means in the context of our current politics.  I once considered myself a political moderate, but that position was overwhelmed in the last ten years by factions of the radical right.  Since then, through no fault of my own, I’ve apparently been relegated to the extreme left.

Neither the Democrat or Republican parties support Prop 19.  There has been a tepid response from the California Democratic Party, which has declared itself neutral on the Prop 19 vote, but in most cases there appears to be a political cowardice at work among the two major political parties, as opposed to just a conservative or liberal ideological stance on legalizing cannabis.  I think one of the things the President is afraid of when it comes to the drug war is that due to black stereotypes regarding drug use, Obama is fearful of being the labeled the black guy who legalized drugs.  If true, it’s really unfortunate.

Libertarians are divided between liberal and conservative factions.  Those who call themselves Libertarians, and who hang out with the Tea Party, have had the labels authoritarian and social dominator hung around their necks in recent postings on other blogs.  Certainly the social dominator label is appropriate for the allegedly Libertarian Koch brothers, who by mixing incoherent politics with their private oil business interests are making Libertarianism look extremely malevolent.

In most cases, I think it’s easier to understand politics not by a choice of party, but by the personalities drawn to specific party affiliations.  As a working context, it’s a good way to filter out the lies.


Fri, 10/22/2010 - 4:53pm Permalink
Cann_Do (not verified)

In reply to by Giordano (not verified)

Just my opinion, but to me a "True Conservative" is a Fiscal Conservative who supports small government, states rights, individual freedoms and dose not support continuing clearly failed policies like cannabis prohibition.

This is opposed to the Moral Conservatives sweeping the nation, advocating abstinence even from oneself! Moral Conservatives will never have broad appeal and will only limit the Republican Party's growth potential... perhaps even consigning it to a slow fade from relevance.

Consider True Conservatives like Gary Johnson, John Dennis Rand Paul, etc. Refuse to simply go Democrat to tow the party line. Democrats have fully pushed the Drug War on the American public for a long time, profiting from the Police Union support. Hold them accountable. Call and ask them their stance!

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 8:51am Permalink
Asoka (not verified)

With surveys like this you have to look at the margin of error as well as the percentages presented. For example, the PPIC survey error is +/- 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval. This means that 95% of the time that the results of the survey will be withing 3.1% of the actual value if the survey were repeated.

Thus, their results are open to interpretation as to whether Prop19 is ahead or behind. Of course, this caveat applies to all surveys, both those that show it ahead and those that show it behind.

For example, the PPIC results show a sampling error of +/- 3.1% (+/- 3.4% for registered voters, and +/-3.5% for likely voters) = FOR 40.9 to 47.1, AGAINST 45.9 to 52.1. So it's likely that there are more against than for, but that assertion is by no means a certainty. Any of these results are possible:
40.9 vs 45.9
40.9 vs 52.1
47.1 vs 45.9
47.1 vs 52.1

However, due to the error there is no way to tell which of those (or any other values within the range) are the real values. All we really know is the results are somewhere between 40.9-47.1 vs 45.1-52.1 (40.5-47.5 vs 45.5-52.5 for likely voters). Those results are of little to no use IMHO because the range of possible values overlap. So all this survey says one of the following:
1. There are more against than for,
2. There are more for than against,
3. There are about as many for as against.
Well, those results aren't terribly useful, to put it mildly. (These cases are illustrated below)

40.9            45.9     47.1           52.1
|-------- FOR -------------|
                 |--------- AGAINST ------|

|....Case 2......|.Case 3..|...Case 1.....|

I'm very curious what the error would be at a 99% confidence interval. I surmise that the survey would be worthless (not that is of much use now) using a more precise level of confidence.

[As my prof used to say, "Statistics don't lie, people do."]
Thu, 10/21/2010 - 2:01pm Permalink
lol (not verified)

there's still hope i think..... they're saying the poll had didn't show any additional support among young people........ but that's the whole reason i registered this year, and a i have more than a few friends that have done the same, i can't imagine that we are the only ones.... i don't think this poll is entirely accurate.



but we still need to make calls!

Thu, 10/21/2010 - 2:07pm Permalink
Borrego Stoner (not verified)

Okay, I've noticed this mistake repeated several times on a number of outlets. PPIC didn't have a poll in September, at least not the 52/41 one. That poll was conducted by Public Policy Polling, which, incidentally, is Democrat-aligned.

So... comparing the PPP poll in September to this PPIC poll is a bit like comparing apples & oranges. The race is indeed narrowing, but it's foolish to make comparisons between those two polls, which may have very different methods.

Thu, 10/21/2010 - 4:01pm Permalink
JS (not verified)

After having watched so many elections over the years (yes I have a little salt and pepper) I can tell you this. No poll ever gets it exactly right before the election. The most important push is the last few days. Remember when Bush was "elected" by a narrow margin and it came down to a handful of Floridians? It was CLOSE. It is important for everyone to understand, Your Vote Counts. It is just that simple. If you want Prop 19 to pass, then, on election day, get your friends together and GO vote. Then go home and do whatever makes you happy.

Have Faith.

Tue, 10/26/2010 - 9:52pm Permalink

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