Public Opinion

Support for Proposition 19, California's Tax and Regulate Cannabis marijuana legalization initiative is at 50% in the latest Survey USA poll, which was released today. The figure is unchanged from last month's Survey USA poll.

Some 40% of respondents opposed the initiative, which would allow Californians 21 or over to possess up to an ounce of weed and to grow up to 25 square feet worth. The initiative would also give counties and municipalities the local option of permitting, taxing, and regulating marijuana sales and cultivation.

Survey USA contacted 1,000 adult Californians, found 837 of them registered to vote, and polled 602 of them it considered most likely to vote. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.1%

This poll is in line with other recent polls, including one we reported on earlier this week that had support for a general marijuana legalization question at 51%. Like other recent telephone polls, today's Survey USA poll shows higher levels of support for legalization than the face-to-face polls, suggesting that some potential voters are reluctant to say they support a controversial idea like legalization, but may do so in the privacy of the voting booth.

Support for Prop 19 was stronger among men (55%) than women (45%), stronger among people under 50 (55%) than over (45%), and stronger among Democrats (60%) and independents (53%) than Republicans (36%). Prop 19 garnered majority support from blacks (54%) and whites (51%), but not Hispanics (45%) or Asians (44%).

Not particularly surprisingly, support for legalization correlates with support for liberal positions on other social issues. More than three-quarters (76%) of people who described themselves as liberals supported Prop 19, while only 27% of conservatives did. Nearly two-thirds of people who oppose the Tea Party (64%) and support abortion rights (65%) said they would vote for Prop 19. But the measure also won majority support from both gun owners (54%) and non-gun owners (51%).

Geographically, the poll showed the strongest support for Prop 19 in the Greater Los Angeles area (56%) and the San Francisco Bay area (53%). Support dropped under 50% in the Central Valley (45%) and in inland Southern California (38%).

Most of the polls so far have shown Prop 19 leading, but having a tough time getting over the 50% mark. Still, that suggests that Prop 19 can get to that magical 50% plus one by winning over even a very small percentage of undecided voters -- so long as it can keep the voters that it has and get them to the polls.

Ex-cops and college students, conservative constitutional scholars and a liberal-leaning web site, former narcs and hip-hop figures -- all are strange bedfellows in a new campaign to legalize marijuana that launched Tuesday. Led by the political blog site FireDogLake, the Just Say Now campaign has also enlisted Students for Sensible Drug Policy (SSDP), Law Enforcement Against Prohibition (LEAP), and GoTV, as well as prominent individuals from across the political spectrum in what it is billing as a "transpartisan" movement to free the weed.

The campaign's goals are to:
 

• "Organize transpartisan support for ending marijuana prohibition across the country by combining the online organizing efforts of FireDogLake, which has 100,000 readers a day, with the grassroots organizing abilities of Students for Sensible Drug Policy, with chapters at 150 campuses across the country.
• "Turn out voters to support marijuana initiatives on the 2010 ballot in Arizona, Oregon, California, Colorado and South Dakota. [Editor's Note: The Colorado initiative campaign is actually aimed at 2012.]
• "Work to get marijuana initiatives on the ballot in multiple states in 2012, with an emphasis on presidential battleground states, to encourage a national conversation about marijuana policy during the next election.
• "Inform the conversation around ending prohibition and educate the public about the true state of our antiquated drug policy
• "Encourage government at all levels to adopt more sane, pragmatic and reasonable policy regarding marijuana."

As part of the campaign, Just Say Now is also launching a petition to President Obama calling for an end to pot prohibition. In addition to being available online, students at SSDP chapters around the country will be carrying copies for signing on campus.

"The war on marijuana is a failure," the petition reads. "The government wastes billions of dollars fighting drug cartels that thrive on marijuana prohibition. Thousands of people are killed, police officers' lives are put in risk, and taxpayer dollars are wasted for nothing. With states on the verge of legalizing marijuana, it's time for a reality check. The federal government should drop its active opposition to marijuana legalization. It's time to end the war on marijuana."

"We're delighted to be joining with SSDP to launch this campaign, and bringing together a transpartisan coalition of support," said FireDogLake's Jane Hamsher. "We have a significant online presence, and SSDP has a significant grassroots presence. Young people want marijuana to be legalized in overwhelming numbers: Young voters are not just excited to support legalization, but are much more likely to turn out to vote if marijuana is on the ballot. We're delighted about organizing legalization supporters and getting them to the polls on election day."

"I am thrilled to be partnering with FireDogLake at an historic moment in the marijuana legalization debate," said SSDP executive director Aaron Houston. "Our coalition will serve as a long-needed cooperative effort that will marry expert political minds with an enormous grassroots network of students and activists around the country. Together, we'll get the message out that we can cut off 70% of the cartels' profits if we tax and regulate marijuana like alcohol."

Students across the country will be working the phones to identify sympathetic potential voters and get out the vote in November, said Hamsher, casting an eye toward the Tax and Regulate Cannabis marijuana legalization initiative in California. "We're hoping California is going to be a turn-out election and not a persuasion campaign," she said, alluding to the low level of undecided voters, around 10% in most polls. "Support declines as folks get older, and off-year elections tend to turn out older voters, not younger ones. We're hoping to identify people who support the measure who will be willing to put in efforts to pass it in the states that have measures on the ballot."

Pot legalization could be just the issue to bring key groups of voters to the polls. As Ryan Grim reported in the Huffington Post Tuesday, recent polling suggests that "surge voters" (those who came out in historic numbers for the 2008 election), young voters, single women under 40, and Hispanics would be more inclined to come out and vote if legalization is on the ballot.

"As a police officer, I can tell you that the 'war on marijuana' has done nothing to reduce marijuana use," said LEAP executive director Neill Franklin, a 33-year veteran cop who ran anti-narcotics task forces for the Maryland State Police and Baltimore Police Department. "But this failed prohibition policy has achieved some results: far too many cops killed in action, billions of tax dollars wasted, powerful and well-funded drug cartels and out-of-control violence in our cities. When my good friend Ed Toatley was killed in the line of fire during an undercover operation, Maryland lost one of the best narcotics cops in our state's history. It is in his honor, and in the names of all the good cops whose lives have needlessly been lost in this failed 'drug war,' that I now work to change these deadly laws."

Seeing a political opening, the campaign will work with LEAP and its speaker bureau to get the message out. "We will have a heavy emphasis on law enforcement and people with criminal justice experience who can speak to the truth of a situation that has been demagogued for so long," said Hamsher.

"I'm very proud to be part of this campaign," said former Seattle police chief and LEAP member Norm Stamper. "I've come to the conclusion that the drug war does more harm than good."

"This is a fundamental issue of states' rights. This is an opportunity to enable states to choose how to address this issue" said Bruce Fein, former associate deputy Attorney General under President Reagan, "Marijuana should be treated just like alcohol -- regulated and taxed -- there could be a windfall for the US economy."

The hip-hop community is also in the house. "I'm very gratified that this has moved along to this point, where law enforcement and states' rights folks and Republicans are starting to come together," said Bill Adler, publicist for Def Jam Records. "It's an idea whose time has come. It should have happened 40 years ago."

Just Say Now is tired of waiting.

A national Angus-Reid poll released Wednesday has found majority support for legalizing marijuana, with 52% of respondents saying they wanted to free the weed. That figure includes 59% of independents and 57% of Democrats, but only 38% of Republicans.

The 52% figure is almost identical to a December Angus-Reid poll that found support at 53%. The difference is within the statistical margin of error. But the Angus-Reid polling finds higher support than most recent polls, which show support nationwide for legalization somewhere in the forties.

Support for legalizing any other drugs was dramatically lower, with only 10% supporting legalizing Ecstasy, and only single-digit support for legalizing heroin, cocaine, or methamphetamine. The high levels of opposition to drug legalization cut across party lines.

The poll found that while a large majority (64%) believe that "America has a serious drug abuse problem," an equally large majority (65%) believe the war on drugs is a failure. Only 8% said the drug war was working.

The poll also surveyed attitudes toward Mexico and things Mexican. Some 78% respondents had favorable views of Mexican food, and 59% held favorable views of the Mexican people. But only 34% had a favorable view of Mexican immigrants (without distinguishing between legal and illegal) and only 7% had a favorable view of the Mexican government. The poll found that people who had actually been to Mexico tended to have more favorable view of things Mexican.

Nearly half (49%) of respondents believe Mexico deserves most of the blame for being a major drug supplier to the US, while 34% thought the US bore more blame. A majority (59%) of Republicans blamed Mexico, while only 49% of independents and 45% of Democrats did. Regionally, majorities of people in the West (54%) and the South (52%) blamed Mexico, while only 46% in the Midwest and 38% in the Northeast blamed Mexico.

Two California public opinion polls, one released Friday and one released Monday, are at odds as to whether the Tax and Regulate Cannabis marijuana legalization initiative (now known officially as Proposition 19) has the support of Golden State voters. The confused polling results suggest a race that will be very tight.

On Friday, the Field Poll reported that only 44% supported the initiative, while 48% opposed it and 8% were undecided. But that was followed on Monday by a SurveyUSA poll that found 50% supported the initiative, 40% opposed it, and 11% were undecided. (The numbers don't add up because of rounding.)

The sampling margin of error for the SurveyUSA today poll was +/- 4%, while the margin of error for the Field poll was +/- 3.2% overall and +/- 5.5% for its population subsamples. Again, given the small gap between support and opposition and the margin for error, the polling suggests a very tight race indeed.

Proposition 19 would legalize the possession of up to an ounce of marijuana and the growing of a garden of 25 square feet by adults anywhere in California. It would also provide counties and municipalities with the local option to allow, tax, and regulate marijuana sales and production. If it wins in November, it would be the first time the voters of any state have voted to legalize marijuana.

The SurveyUSA poll showed majority support for the initiative among moderates (53%), liberals (69%), college graduates (54%), and people who make less than $40,000 a year (54%) or more than $80,000 a year (53%). The Field poll showed majority support among Democrats (53%), young voters (52%), young whites (53%), and middle aged whites (51%).

There are discrepancies between the two polls, especially when it comes to support by race and by geographic region. The SurveyUSA poll found majority support for the initiative among whites (50%), blacks (52%), and Asians (53%), with only Hispanics (46%) failing to get on board. But the Field poll was significantly lower, especially among non-whites. It showed majority support among no ethnic groups, with support at 48% for whites, 40% for blacks, 33% for Asians, and 36% among Hispanics.

Similarly, the Field poll shows majority support only in the San Francisco Bay area (53%), while the SurveyUSA poll shows majority support there (53%) and in the Greater Los Angeles area (54%). The Field poll had support for the initiative at only 46% in Los Angeles County, 46% in the Inland Empire, and 39% in San Diego County.

There has been some speculation that differences in polling techniques could account for the differences. The SurveyUSA poll is an automatic poll conducted by telephone with automated questions and response prompts, while the Field poll is conducted by a live interviewer. It has been suggested that some respondents may be embarrassed to tell a live interviewer they support legalization.

We are less than four months out now. This is going to get very interesting.